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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (32269)	1/5/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Jim, The DRGs hit a new high today and many of the Non HiTechs are already at near their highs. The upside in the DOW is limited. The technicals are all showing overbought accross the board right now. The NAZ is strong so I am hoping it will pull the DOW up tomorrow near the 8050 range intraday, then I will initiate my PUT. As for the bond rally, that is a concern to me and sooner or later it should have a positive effect to the upside, but since the Asian Flu started, it has de-coupled on and off with the stock market. When the DOW first hit 8300 at the end of JULY the interest rate was at 6.3%, so it has de-coupled quite a bit, mainly due to the flight to safety caused by the Asian/S.American Flu. I guess there are basicly 2 ways to look at it. One - being that either the interest rates will come up or the Market will go up or a combination of both. The other perspective is that the bond has compensated for the Asian Flu by moving down into a new range, and that this is the new starting point. Somewhat similar to what you indicated with the HiTechs having a new starting point. It could also mean, as you stated earlier, that the lowering of the interest rates may compensate somewhat for loss revenues due to the Asian flu. I will stick with my technicals and say that a pullback should start tomorrow, but I do not feel that it will be a large one. Maybe 100-200 DOW points, that's all. As for the Jan rally, we just came from an intraday low only 10 trading days ago (12/19) of 7577 on the DOW. That's 400 points(5.3%). Many would consider the starting point to be the closing price on 12/19 which was 7756, but the technicals are actually mathematically based on the the 7577 figure, not 7756. Concerning the cash flow, there was a sell program around 2 PM which sent the DOW down about 50 points. Thanks for the discussion, many interesting points which you are bringing up. Seeya