Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4310)	1/6/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: John Chalker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay, You have some excellent posts. I'd like to chew on a few. <<Intel will not be able to gain market share in 1998 with CYRX and AMD finally having decent product,>> I won't make that bet. If sub $1,000 PCs increase market penetration significantly, and INTC has a special chip for that box, it will be hard for AMD to keep up given their yield problems. In other words, if you are capacity constrained and the overall market grows, you are losing marketshare if you can't grow your production. <<Frankly, if NT 5.0 with wolfpack clustering was a 64 bit OS, I think Merced would have killed UNIX and the Sparc architechture by the end of the decade. I still believe WINTEL will prevail,>> SUNW can't produce enough SPARC chips to compete with INTC's Merced, SUNW saw that writing very clearly. Interesting, SUNW must support Merced to ensure its own long term survival. I think that's why they teamed up with them to work on a new OS, and it helps INTC put pressure on MSFT to get NT 5 and 6 out the door. Andy plays one against the other and picks up a new teammate. Your thoughts?? Chalks

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4310)	1/6/1998 11:11:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay - thanks for a really interesting and enlightening discussion of the realities of equipment spending projections. I think there is something a lot of people miss about capitalization. Concentrating on the ultimate efficiencies available from any type of capital outlay must always be tempered by the hard fact of business: where's the money coming from? A lot of people still don't seem to realize that the Koreans, and to a lesser degree other Asian semicondutor economies, simply cannot pay for as much new equipment as they could effectively capitalize. Nobody will lend them the money and they are categorically overindebted as it is. A similar factor applies to the clone-chip PC market, i.e. the "sub-$1000" PC's. There is a market out there that would love to have bitchin' sound, video, and speed but can't afford it. Sure, the middle class suburban kids aren't going to be stuck with their $1200 unit for long when they see how cool GutFest II "Toad Creature from Xenon" plays on the neighbor's $3000 unit. But my mom (just turned 80) wants a unit for her AOL account and the occasional hand of bridge or solitaire or whatever, and a 200mhz clone with 16mb and a decent video card is all she needs. And your blue-collar family may find $799 to be a lot of money, but want a computer. So it's a separate market in some ways, the lower-end consumer market, and these low-margin commodity CPU outfits are a new industry to a degree. That is, for people who 1) just can't afford more, or 2) don't need the extra power. I just saw a HP with a 200mz (may have been a 233, I just glanced at it) K6 for $799 -- isn't this a Slot 1 chip? So also, this is going to take some (or IMHO all) business away from the Net Computer peoples' hypothetical market, and maybe some workstation business as well.

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4310)	1/16/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: cfimx	Respond to of 10921

>>Frankly, if NT 5.0 with wolfpack clustering was a 64 bit OS, I think Merced would have killed UNIX and the Sparc architechture by the end of the decade. I still believe WINTEL will prevail, although NT 6.0 will be required to take full advantage of the Merced performance before Sparc and Unix are run out of town.<< My understanding is that msft is working on a 64bit NT 5.0 that will be ready when i64 is released. msft will also have a 64bit NT for Dec's Alpha in the same time frame.