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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (130793)	2/20/2017 10:48:43 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218555

Denver appears to be the leader of the pack this cycle. Should show signs of exhuastion first? I'd be more likely to bet on some city like San Francisco that'll get whacked by their arrogant sanctuary city attitudes. They're overdue anyhow... ;) Could be a nice little boom in the states lasting several years. Is all about housing and GDP trajectory. Is laughable people worry about Trump but the fed is at the controls behind curtain number 1. Can they really hike much more than once or twice a year with dollar already so strong and given most economies are so weak and are in loosening mode on their end? That how many hikes can they get away with is exactly what I was talking about on the Fed's admitted sentiment management games. They're still trying to regain the "respect" they had pre GFC and pre dot com bomb, and know they're still on thin ice CONfidence wise. Notice how little public attention they're drawing to inflation being well above their 2% target, aka sentiment management. One interesting aspect to the dollar value lately is that the recent drop below 1.00 from above 1.03 was not accompanied with any FX intervention from the ESF, it was IMO "real" weakness, and accompanied by real PM strength too. Weird moves in SDR values lately of the 5 main currencies, especially the dollar, that don't track their FX open market based moves very well either. There's something significant going on behind closed doors in IMF and CB land but it's not clear to me yet what the plans may be.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (130793)	2/21/2017 7:48:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 218555

Yes: << Can they really hike much more than once or twice a year with dollar already so strong and given most economies are so weak and are in loosening mode on their end?>> I say 0.25% per month for 12 months and then see the lay of the land. The US$ is really weak vs NZ$. I'd like to see NZ$ at about US50c = NZ$1. It's currently US70c and was as high as US87c. With US interest rates back up, there would be serious taxation on the interest receipts on US$ deposits. One good thing about 0% interest rates is no taxation on interest! With deflation of lots of things I buy, it's not all bad holding cash. Except that dilution continues apace so house prices and other asset prices [gold] have soared over 15 years [despite a big bump down in USA house prices a decade ago]. Mqurice