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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4316)	1/5/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 10921

<These numbers are from from Credit Suisse First Boston.> Not for "nuttin" but as a certified "XFB" that guy is the worst! <The new Dataquest survey will be out any day. I'm expecting major downward revisions around the world as semi cash flows simply aren't keeping pace with funding requirements especially for .25 micron tools> So is the rest of the planet...thats my point about the pricing of the stocks... I don't disagree with many of your points...I'm just saying looking ahead 10 years you don't wait for "Rosie Scenario" to tell you when to buy... I happen to have recently purchased a reletively small position in what I've gathered from this thread are positoned well for the future: SFAM, AMAT, BRKS, SVGI, EGLS, PHTN, among them. I'm not saying "jump in with both feet"...hell I've got ALMOST ALL of my money in cash. I dont even like the market...I'm short a couple large cap S & P stocks. But I like some biotechs and I like some of the equipment stocks...especially when you say: < A good DUV stepper cost $7 million in US greenbacks, and CMP polishers ain't cheap at $2.7 million for a dry in dry out process.> Music to my ears! DAK

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4316)	1/6/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Jay - <<Remember, that the rule of thumb for a healthy semi industry (good margins & pricing) is to hold equipment spending to 21% of semi revenue globally.>> Actually, the infrastructure group put out a chart about 1 year ago that showed cap ex for semiconductors as a percentage of semiconductor revenues. It was NOT a constant 21. In fact front end equipment has been on a secular up-trend since the early 80's to '95, from 6% to 16% (it took a dive in '96, as there was over-capacity in all segments, not just DRAM). Assembly and test segments (vs front-end) have been constant over the same time frame at between 5 and 10% (I don't remember exactly where.) I would expect these long term trends to continue as machinery takes up more and more of the revenue stream, and workers less and less (as a percentage). Nothing new here - automation at work. Clark