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To: Larry Sallee who wrote (2274)1/6/1998 6:49:00 AM
From: Ditchdigger  Respond to of 4276
 
Larry,

So you can put the concept of "potential reserves into perspective, here's some
definitions:

Proved reserves - Reserves that have been proved to a high degree
of certainty by analysis of the producing history of a reservoir and/or by volumetric
analysis of adequate geological and engineering
data. Commercial productivity has been established by actual
production, successful testing, or in certain cases by favorable core
analyses and electrical-log interpretation when the producing
characteristics of the formation are known from nearby fields.
Volumetrically, the structure, areal extent, volume and
characteristics of the reservoir are well defined by a reasonable
interpretation of adequate subsurface well control and by known
continuity of hydrocarbon-saturated material above known fluid
contacts, if any, or above the lowest known structural occurrence of
hydrocarbons.

Probable reserves - Reserves susceptible of being proved that are
based on reasonable evidence of producible hydrocarbons within the
limits of a structure or reservoir above known or inferred fluid
contacts but are defined to a lesser degree of certainty because of
more limited well control and/or the lack of definitive production
tests. Probable reserves may include extensions of proved reservoirs
or other reservoirs that have not been tested at commercial rates of
flow or reserves recoverable by enhanced recovery methods that have not yet been
tested in the same reservoir or where there is
reasonable uncertainty that the program will be implemented.

Possible reserves - Reserves that may exist but are
less well defined by well control than probable reserves. These include those based
largely on log interpretation and other
evidence of hydrocarbon saturation in zones behind the pipe in
existing wells, possible extensions to proved and probable reserve
areas where indicated by geophysical or geological studies, and those to be recovered
by enhanced recovery methods where the data are insufficient to classify the reserves
as proved or probable.
Includes hydrocarbons in fields which have been discovered but need further
delineation, ownership extension or some combination of lower development costs and
higher prices (and, therefore, are not
currently commercial) before they can be considered proved or
probable reserves.

(4) Potential reserves ----- whatever weak data is left over that can't even qualify for
Possible. <vbg> In other words very very low likelihood of occurring. DD(we can thank Taylor Mills)



To: Larry Sallee who wrote (2274)1/6/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: Ditchdigger  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4276
 
Larry,to give you an idea of how the industry values this oil,

Kenny: I've seen numbers used from $3-$6/bbl all around the world, depending on
development costs, lifting costs, and fiscal terms. The number will be different for each
specific development, but you can use the above range for a good
conservative-to-liberal valuation spread. I'm not as sure about natural gas valuations,
but if you convert the above figures to $/mscf at 6:1, you get $0.50-$1.00/mscf. Try
that and see if it get you in the ballpark.Thanks Razorbak-former Murhpy Oil analyst
*************
Ditchdigger, with such wells you must take into account the cost of finding (if they drill
additional wells around) and the cost of bringing the oil up, these are very "small wells"
I would suggest you use numbers closer to $3/barrel. You also must factor in what
royalties or other sharing agreements there might be.
Thanks, Zeev Hed for your opinion DD
*****
Hopefully this will help you determine a realistic value for your oil.DD,