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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (6676)	1/6/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: mark pearson	Respond to of 95453

$12 per barrel makes no sense. If you are Saudi Arabia, why would you stand idly by and watch your income drop 30% when you could instead cut production by 10% and maintain the current price? After all, the "C" in OPEC stands for cartel and these guys have a vested interested in keeping the dollars rolling in. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a threat of production cuts from the Big Boys in the Mideast to bolster prices soon.

To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (6676)	1/6/1998 12:07:00 AM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I'm ready to get it Carmine.Where in the world are you getting $12 a barrel?GD

To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (6676)	1/6/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<<Tony, try $12 per barrel...that is why these drillers are under pressure...no-one on this thread gets it...>> That's all we need, an eye doctor who thinks he's an crude oil analyst. With a contrarian indicator like that, perhaps I should turn S-T bullish..... NAH.... Still looking to base at these levels for the next three months. Downside on OSX could reach 95. Still holding my NE position, but I did sell calls last Wed. Spot prices may spike as low as $13 in the s-t, but L-T we're looking at 18 to 22. From here on out, barring some major world catastrophe, demand will outstrip supplies of oil--PERIOD, that's why the producers are willing to pay such high premiums for rigs right now even as oil drops to $17 on the current K beause they're not your average fools. Blow-out earnings are priced in at this point for the drillers. Only time will help us now. We need to build another base to spring off of. As I've been saying, for you S-T guys, I wouldn't be buying any calls on anything in this sector until we hit new highs. Too much uncertainty to go long on calls. Those w/ L-T positions(like myself) might want to consider selling calls on the next rebound. These things aren't going to reverse on a dime, unless oil spikes to $26 tomorrow. We'll eventually break the downtrend line and go into a sideways pattern. I believe on this current downleg that will occur. All IMHO of course, just my best educated guess. Who knows maybe I'll be buying back my calls tomorrow. Good luck! Thean: Take a look at GHV, looks to be moving after forming a base. I'd like your technical opinion. I hopped in last Fri at 26. My guy at Goldman loves it (although he's getting my butt kicked shorting CSCO--perhaps tomorrow will be the turn?). Says we'll see 45 by yr-end in GHV. -Lucretius