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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (90154)	3/1/2017 1:53:08 AM
From: Underexposed	10 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar codfish23 edward miller GROUND ZERO™ Katelew and 5 more members Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218608

Reading this thread, I hear a back and forth conversation as to the status of gold... is it bearish or bullish? Should I short or go long? So I decided to give my opinion as a chartist based on my style of charting. I will give you the full meal deal on this where I draw a consensus from the 4 charts that I usually consult...I hope you find this interesting . My method is to consult overlays and indices in these charts and assign a value of: Bullish, Mildly Bullish, Neutral Bullish, Neutral, Neutral Bearish, Mildly Bearish, Bearish. After I finish with the last chart I add up for each category and then cancel out opposites... what is left is a consensus that I have found to be quite reliable. So here we go...starting with a 1. GOLD P&F chart Unlike some others that use P&F charts, I don't use them as the definitive bull/bear go to. On a breakout or fall it is rather easy to identify that designation... but in this chart, the price of gold is crawling back from a low of about 1130 to where it is today. In the upper left hand corner you see an alert called a "Low Pole Reversal". Essentially this is a Mildly Bullish signal showing the price has retraced over 1/2 of its plummet without falling back. Really what I use P&F charts is looking at the road ahead ... where are the resistances... where are the supports. Right now Gold is stuck snuggled up to a resistance at 1260. Many people get emotional about Gold thinking any rise or fall is going to result in going to the moon or falling through the floor . I don't see either of those scenarios at this point. Just to advance another 150 dollars takes it through 3 resistances in cluding the one mentioned and the last one is very broad.... but the rewards if it passes that broadband are probably great (I would have to look at a coarser chart to see if it is. As far as falling is concerned... I see a broad support near 1220... which considering the climb it made I would think if did fall there it would rebound quickly Conclusion: Mildly Bullish ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. "Trigger" Chart You have seen this chart several times in this thread. It is my go to chart when I want to look at market timing of a stock. There is lots of good information here... I will start with the dashed lines. First the two vertical red lines show bearish falls in the price of Gold. Note the Slow Sto and MACD, they are falling like a stone... then the BBwidth suddenly rises and you are looking at a Bear signal. Now look at the current situation... Is the Slow Sto falling??? Nopes...Is the MACD falling???? Nopes ... so so far it certainly does not mirror the patterns for a bear signal...right? A bullish signal is shown by the green dashed vertical line. (you might say...yeah! but it was bullish since Dec 2016... errr no... that was consolidation after a bear run... the breakout occurred later) Next look at the horizontal green line.... When a price suddenly turns bullish or bearish, my observations are that the BBWidth falls to a certain level... currently that level is at that green line. If you look at the current situation, the BBwidth is reaching for that line (bottom right circle)...we are in the region where it can occur at any time now... could be tomorrow or a couple of weeks from now (look at the flatline of the BBwidth in the month of September)... but if you are interested in Gold...bull or bear... you should pay a lot of attention now. the important places for this evaluation are 1. Note the effect of the 200 daySMA... that is the resistance we saw in the previous chart. However, see the position of the price of gold??? It is riding nicely between the upper bollie and the 20daySMA... right were we want it to be for a bullish breakout. But it could fall back... so we pay attention to that... if the mirror image was there and the price was between the Lower bollie and the 20 daySMA that would be a bullish sign Conclusion: Mildly Bullish 2. The Slow Sto is pegged well above 80 and flat. Could it be more Bullish... I don't think so. Conclusion: Bullish 3. The MACD...you will note I don't use a signal line. I don't like it in long term (Daily + charts)... Intraday 1-5 minute charts it is very useful... it is a daytrader tool. Look at the slope of the current MACD... slightly positive with albeit small higher highs. Conclusion: Neutral Bullish ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. "Sentiment" Chart This a chart that I consult during a consolidation phase of a stock or times like this. I call it my sentiment chart... had to call it something :) 1. I don't normally pay a lot of attention to a Parabollic Sar overlay... that is unless the bollies are approaching a tight squeeze. Then I want the dotted red line to hit the price close from the top... right in the throat of the Bollie squeeze. that would be a bullish sign... hitting it from the bottom is bearish...an example of that is not easy to see but it happened in early Sept. The Oct 28 hit turned out to be a head fake. While I look at it I have found Par Sar a bit unreliable. Look at it in #1 circle... Unless the breakout happens very soon the indication would be bear as the dotted line would strike from underneath.... If the breakout did occur soon it would simply be an extension of the previous Bullish breakout. Conclusion: Mildly Bearish 2. The Force 100 indicator has been stuck in the mud for months...it has steadily improved to the point that it has peeked above the mud... it could turn around and dive back in though. Conclusion: Neutral Bullish 3. The RSI (note the 30 day lookback) has been pretty flat for the last month slightly over half way. Conclusion: Neutral Bullish 4. The ADX DI+/- are very important. It is the cross of the red over green (bear) or green over red (bull) Currently we are bullishly green side up and a slight divergence Conclusion: Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. "Ichimoku" Chart I am still learning how to really understand this chart type. But like always I form my own ideas :) Ichimoku means "glance" in Japanese... it is a one glance shows all as an overall impression. Last chart ... promise :) A great looking chart and one where I believe I can discover more nuances in time. The red and green clouds are like molasses... prices can get stuck in there... the red ones are really bad... the green ones less so but still bad. The borders of each cloud represent resistance or support depending on the direction of the price when they hit them. If you are below a red cloud...not good... you can see that from Oct 2016 to Jan 2017 where it entered that molasses... and bounced around inside that red cloud for a month... tried to leave it then was dragged back in for a while 1. Now they are finally free of that restraint and nicely above that cloud Conclusion: Bullish 2. now look at the thin red/blue lines... it is blue side up for bull and red side up for bear... look at these lines from Oct to early January where the red was above blue... then the blue crossed the red and it continues like that today... no sign of a bearish cross so far. Conclusion: Bullish 3. After falling for months the On Bal volume has risen a bit but now is pretty flat Conclusion: Neutral 4. the CCI is quite volatile but currently it is quite bullish Conclusion: Bullish ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVALUATION / CONCLUSION Well let's do the math :) Bullish : 5 Mildly Bullish: 2 Neutral Bullish: 3 Neutral: 1 Neutral Bearish : 0 Mildly Bearish: 1 Bearish : 0 Well it is quite clear... We would knock off one Mildly Bullish and still be overwhelmingly Bullish. So based on my analysis here I would say the resistance at 1260 to be broken fairly soon and we next would have the challenge to pass 1310. If there was a pullback to 1220... which could happen, I would not change my overall conclusion and expect it to rebound to challenge the 1260 again and probably beat it. Hope you found this interesting