To: current trend who wrote (366 ) 1/21/1998 2:05:00 AM From: current trend Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 745
Why the market will go higher-- by Joe Battipaglia, Chairman of Investment Policy 1/20/98 The New York markets after rebounding off of recent lows in the area of 7600, are beginning to move higher. We are seeing very good action overseas, particularly over the weekend. The Korean market which was off approximately 40% last year is currently-up 40% in 1998 and the year is still young. Similarly, other foreign markets are starting to stabilize as well. On a short-term basis, I believe confidence will not be further rattled. Additionally, we are almost finished with the earnings season and on-balance the numbers are good with corporate management continuing to be optimistic for 1998. I believe that there are some key ingredients for 1998 for continue growth in the U.S. markets. For starters, recognition by the Federal Reserve that inflation has been vanquished and the discount rate to move lower. I believe this is critical to facilitating business, expanding multiples further and maintaining confidence. Secondly, we need to see the U.S. economy being measured by consumer spending, housing starts and industrial production. I believe that these market indicators will remain at relatively strong levels, which is possible since there are very few impediments to business and consumers alike. Lastly, the overseas markets have to witness stability in the currencies of Korea and Hong Kong in order for capital to start to move back into the area which will restore confidence and add value to the IMF's bailout packages. I believe this is all very possible through the course of this year, thus enabling the Dow and S&P to reach new high ground probably this summer. We are maintaining a 9000 target on the Dow, which presents significant opportunities in equities. Technology, although dead recently, continues to offer compelling growth. I believe news such as faster Internet speeds may accelerate spending on technology platforms in 1998 and 1999. Once again showing the renewable capabilities of technology companies to create new demand where once there was none. Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals are a clear story for us. When you can charge 3x the price for the same good coupled with 60% margins reinforces my confidence in this sector. Furthermore, today's life insurance acquisition is another example of my growing belief of additional consolidations in financial services. The big themes for 1998 will continue with acquisitions and mergers and growth in the area of 12% to 15%. I remain encouraged by the rally in foreign markets of this weekend. This report is only a summary of research reports published by Gruntal & Co., L.L.C