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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (14181)	1/6/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Steve Rolfe	Respond to of 70976

<< Is there any fundamental reason why we are up from 26 to 33? >> Jacob, Was there any fundamental reason why AMAT dropped from 33 to 26? 26 was very short lived as well... << there are too many people talking about their margin calls, and how they have no cash left to buy at these great prices. >> Many people are starting to buy at these great prices, and IMHO you should be increasing your already strong position in AMAT at this time. << if semi-equips go to one times sales >> What fundamental reason would semi-equips (more specifically AMAT) go to 1 X Sales? I agree if all of the news we are going to get in the next 2 weeks is bad we could go lower, but at this point with good news coming out recently (more specifically the Intel news) and the way AMAT takes a conservative approach to earnings, handles its balance sheet, and is the semi-equip leader, I think the upside potential reward is killing the downside risk at this point in time. It would be a shame to look back and think wow I could have got AMAT in the high 20's or low 30's. Steve

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (14181)	1/6/1998 2:36:00 AM
From: Tech Buyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>> if semi-equips go to one times sales, will I be able to take advantage of it? << I haven't seen this discussed much, but I think investors do learn from their past mistakes, if they are recent enough. There are many new investors who learned about AMAT and the cyclical nature of the semi-equip industry within the last few years (blame the Internet!) They all look back and see what a bargain AMAT was at 11 in Summer 1996. They now realize that it should not have traded that low, and decide to give it more support during future downturns, such as late 1997. Therefore, I very much doubt that we will see AMAT trading at 1x sales this year, no matter what happen with DRAM prices or Korea. Those who think AMAT will drop to 1996's low are just dreaming, IMHO. TB