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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George T. March who wrote (555)	1/6/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Respond to of 2561

George, PAG is pretty safe with a low FFO multiple in a good industry, but I like to trade it since growth rate has slowed. LXP, FFO Growth slowed drastically, but FFO growth may accelerate when secondaries are put to work. HME - Looks good, pick up under 25-1/2. SIZ is not so safe nor does it have good management. It traded at 16-1/2 according to my records in Jan 1987, thus is one of the worst performing REIT's long term. It is trading at a huge discount to the market with a large dividend, but I only trade this short term and bail out near 11. JDN was a darling and is fully priced at 32-33 until it becomes a darling again. UMH has an expensive price for it's slowing FFO growth rate. I won't buy above 11-1/4 and more than 3 weeks from the dividend. I think the DRIP plan helps support the stock price which belongs 10 to 11-1/2 until growth accelerates again. SEA I like, but range seems to be 24 to 27 for a while and FFO growth should decelerate for the 4th quarter below last quarters .57 according to a conversation I had 2 months ago with management. CLP has been a favorite, but FFO growth decelarated in the last quarter. Merrill upgraded it a month ago, which should propel it to 32 or above if earnings are decent. CPT looks very cheap and good strenght in the mid 29 range. I wish I had bought in late December at 29-1/2 and picked up a dividend also. OAIC appears to have a mortgage portion also, so I never researched much about it. The street seems to like it a lot, but my opinion is uninformed. PAH and MT are breaking down and are very high quality companies that should be in a long term portfolio when the form bottoming patterns. They are both paired-share structures, and now have sizeable hotel portfolios which is a cyclical business. MT is less exposed since it has a huge medical portfolio also. CNT, DDR and ENN are 3 more to consider for long term portfolios that are currently 10% or more below highs. Richard