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To: SteveG who wrote (3268)1/6/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: SteveG  Respond to of 12468
 
<A> Get Ready To Catch The Telecom Merger Wave, Analyst Says
By Brian Steinberg

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Telecommunications industry watchers should prepare themselves for a new year of crossed wires, ringing debates and merger talk, according to one of the sector's leading analysts.

The "consolidation theme" appears "unstoppable," in the words of Daniel Reingold, a senior telecommunications analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co.

Among the driving factors, Reingold said, is a steadily increasing pressure on the Federal Communications Commission to "get the games going" from the media, Congress and a court system filled with Republican appointees. Additionally, he said, regional Bells are champing at the bit to enter the nation's long-distance market.

"You can see that the Bell companies are yearning for a greater geographical footprint," said Reingold, "so when they do get into long distance they can (have) an ability to handle multi-regional customers. It's one of the underlying drivers of these strategic horizontal consolidations."

Reingold made the comments during a conference call with investors Tuesday.

As examples, the analyst pointed to Monday's proposed $4.4 billion merger between SBC Communications Inc. (SBC) and Southern New England Telecommunications Corp. (SNG), and a recent decision from a U.S. Federal Court in Texas which could eliminate some conditions barring the Bells from getting long-distance approval.

The SBC-SNET link may have been the first merger of the New Year, but Reingold believes it surely won't be the last, as horizontal consolidation becomes the trend of the day.

The recent linkage of WorldCom Inc. (WCOM), Brooks Fiber Properties Inc. (BFPT) and MCI Communications Corp. (MCIC) has upped the ante considerably in the telecom world. WorldCom now has tendrils anchored in long-distance, data, Internet, and local service arenas, and its competitors have been left to find ways to build themselves to those levels.

Alternate and smaller phone-service providers have been and will continue to be ripe for takeover, Reingold said. Companies such as wireless start-up Teligent Inc. (TGNT), Intermedia Communications Inc. (ICIX) and ICG Communications Inc. (ICGX) are possible takeover targets, he said, as are Cincinnati Bell Inc. (CSN) and Frontier Corp. (FRO).

Teleport Communications Group Inc. (TCGI) has also been the subject of acquisition talk, but because Merrill Lynch advises the company, its analysts don't discuss its affairs.

SBC's new Northeast "beach-head" in SNET could set up some sort of alliance between the Texas Bell and Bell Atlantic Corp. (BEL), Reingold suggested.

While he predicted "a series of rejections ahead" for Bells seeking long-distance approval from the FCC, Reingold said he believed a Bell would enter the market in the first half of 1999. The Bells "have gained ground in their negotiations" with regulators, he said.

Of course, such activity threatens the standing and valuation of long-distance companies, he said, especially AT&T Corp. (T), which has a heavy exposure to residential customers.

"There is a cliff out there that the long-distance industry faces," Reingold said.

As the Bells seek strategic ways to enter long-distance, AT&T could do the same to access the local market, he said. The nation's largest long-distance company might seek an independent like Cincinnati Bell to gain a local foothold.



To: SteveG who wrote (3268)1/6/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: DubM  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12468
 
Steve, thanks for the excellent report. The estimated 4 th Qtr. sales annualized would be 113.6 million. Maybe Teligent will double their sales this year and achieve 2 million!!

Teligent shares outstanding-51,758,000
WinStar shares outstanding-33,869,000

You guys can do the arithmetic based on todays closing price.
I must profess my ignorance as i just cannot understand where the logic is in this. Teligent, at this point in time, is not worthy to even be discussed as comparable to WinStar.

Dub