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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (18926)	3/31/2017 9:10:04 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Excellent observations OX, I see that the south African rand is down 10% this year. I would point out the period from 1999-2000. This period was where the FED was raising rates from 4.75 to 6.5% and was when the AUD saw a third of its value vanish by 2001 (in US$). The rebound in AUD after this period corresponded to the massive move in commodities, where gold hit $1900 and Oil reached $140+. remember it took a number of years for the commodity markets to get rolling after they commenced their bull markets in 1999-2000. The AUD/USD was way down in the 47 cent area in 2001 and gold was at $275 and crude was under $20... Crude had it's big advance from 2005 to June 2 of 2008 when it topped out at $148.20.... Gold did not top out in the 1900+ area until 2011. however, you make excellent structural points John

To: The Ox who wrote (18926)	3/31/2017 10:22:24 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By John Pitera Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi OX and John, That may be the surprise - global reflation in commodities and a weaker Dollar. How could that develop? Fiscal monetary policy through increased deficits. Imagine if the federal government stream lined infrastructure program from a regulatory perspective and cosigned with the states for state issued infrastructure bonds. More debt guaranteed by the full faith of the US government, but incurred by the states for programs they deem necessary by their own prioritization. Lower Dollar in a reflation trade that would boost commodities. I expect it. Wilbur Ross will kick it off - Maybe even call them Ross Bonds. That would be powerful and every politician would get his fair share of the pork - BUT hire American and buy American. By god THAT SOUNDS GOOD!! remember where you heard it first<smile> There is plenty of money out there looking to invest in tax free municipalities. Bob