To: robert b furman who wrote (91323 ) 4/1/2017 8:40:42 PM From: GROUND ZERO™ 2 RecommendationsRecommended By Mevis Ms. Baby Boomer
Respond to of 218560 U.S. Credit Deterioration is Picking Up Steam, Fastest Since Lehman Updated 4/1/17 at 7:30AM ET The cycle is turning, right before our very eyes. In recent months, we’ve found a substantial amount of evidence in capital markets pointing to credit formation reaching a saturation point. We’re seeing surging defaults in commercial real estate securitization pools, credit card receivables and even prime auto loans. The icing on the credit cake is margin debt’s historic rise. Equity bears have been talking up this leverage class since 2014, but this time there’s far more collateral evidence of easy credit “saturation.” Credit Rolling Over Faster than anytime Since Lehman BrothersEvery day, December 2016 is looking more and more like December of 2007. The credit deterioration has been sharp and swift. After auto loans, credit card receivables and commercial real estate; Commercial and Industrial loans is another area we have our eye on. This $2T segment of the U.S. financial system hit an air pocket during the last three months of 2016 with non-residential property financing in a 5.5% plunge, a rate of change to the downside not seen since 2008. Special thanks to the Telegraph for this chart. Corporate lending is in meaningful contraction as the U.S. Federal Reserve has finally initiated their rate hiking cycle. The Fed hiked rates for the third time in two years in March. Once again, central bankers are smoking in the dynamite shed, they’ve waited far too long to raise rates. They’re clearly tightening monetary policy into ugly credit deterioration.“While the Fed is worried about the economy overheating, bank loans and leases continue to slowdown on a year over year basis. Part of the reason we think the economy is actually losing steam is because of this precipitous fall in lending (credit contraction) over the past year.” thebeartrapsreport.com GZ