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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (19014)	4/11/2017 3:49:08 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip, 10 and 30 day clx offsets really support a higher clix. Aydis has been moderately negative for 15 days straight I think we are finishing up a C wave right now. With clx dropping off negative numbers in the offsets - it won't be too far of a push to expect a possible truncated 5 of C. Earnings number start in earnest next week with banks this week Thursday. Of course the ABC could morph into a bigger A - but that is where earnings come in ( we are there right now). semi shipments have grown January and February with mid teens growth 2017 over 2016 - a lot of stuff is being made including a recovered energy sector and home building. Its been a long time since that old normal has even been dreamt about and I think it is happening else where also (in Japan ,Euroland, and even Brazil is looking better). It took a long time ( 8 years), but global reflation is beginning to get traction. With out tax reform - it is a pretty good story. You may be correct - I think tax reform will usher in the euphoria that explosive markets are made of. Me - I'm just trying to buy dividend paying companies on the dips. If we're going to K2 - I want to be at the summit and then leave early.<smile> Always great to hear from you chipper! Bob

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (19014)	4/11/2017 9:34:29 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip, Great analysis..... that 2260 area is what my work is pointing towards..... I am wondering about if there lurks something beneath there...... this is the 7th year of the decennial pattern.... I have been ruminating on cutting and pasting all of the 7th year of each decade since DJIA 1897........ Let's see if I have time..... AJ sent me a PM today.... he's always been very perceptve..... Hi John, I just thought I'd drop a quick note. You probably already have seen the large weekly H&S top forming on the XLF and associated banking stocks. While H&S tops have been less reliable during this era of Fed accommodation, this particular one seems compelling. With a target of 20.8, it has a nearly 3:1 risk/reward ratio if you had a short at 23.3 and a stop at 24.1 with the cover point at the weekly 50-sma, 21.00 It appears most of the banks and larger OEX stocks want their respective 50-week SMA's. This area also coincides with the re-trace to the big sticks formed the day after the 2016 election. Fundamentally, we could be seeing a reversal of the post-election tax reform discounting. Best Regards, ajtj99 ------------------------------------ the 18 month daily chart has failed at the 50 dma.... looks like it could drift towards 200 dma... it has not really created a momentum buy divergence. John

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (19014)

4/12/2017 9:22:25 AM

From: John Pitera

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Hawkmoon

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip and all the gang who read along..., I ended up taking a deeper dive into the SMH -- SOX sector... it has been so far above it's 200 dma and is so loved right now... the best performing sector out of 134 subsectors... it was mentioned on fast money or the Options show last Friday between 5 - 6 PM. That's the best hour to record of CNBC imo..... their late Friday wrap up.....

Message 31067208

o: robert b furman who wrote (75368)	4/12/2017 9:04:26 AM
From: John P	of 75370

Hi Bob, I looked at some back history of the SMH.... I got curious about a hammer type occurrence when the close was below the lower Bollinger band June of last year there was a day.... we were very close to 200 dma August 25th of 2015... activity below lower BB and rally..... but we were substantially below the 200 dma. Dec 2014 to July 2015 Dec 2013 to Oct 2014 Dec 2012 to oct 2013 .Dec 2011 to Dec 2012 early March 2012 was the closest I could find of a hammer that closed below the lower Bollinger band but we were closer to the 200 dma.... and then Oct 2012 we had a hammer outside the lower BB... but we headed lower in price. Dec 2009 to Dec there is one or 2 other dates in the other charts.... not occurring as far above the 150 dma and 200 dma... November 9th was a very different overall market technical set up than now. A significantly different set of market circumstances.... the JPY keeps going up, the EUR/JPY keeps going down... the TNX is soft. I do not like the war drums that we are navigating through........ nor global credit slowdown Message 31067078 we shall see... Message 30828379 Yes Nov 2016 at the election was a bullish time..... Message 30830274 Message 30833644 Message 30836691 John

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (19014)

4/12/2017 10:38:48 AM

From: John Pitera

2 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
roguedolphin

Respond to of 33421

My.elliottwave.com is having a free open house of all there professional services from April 12 - 20th....

go and sign up for free for those who are interested.... I stumbled on the offer last Friday when my trade partner and I were wondering what had become of Robert Prechter..... you do not see him in the news

We got his service back in 1983 - into the 1990's from 1984 until 1987 he was totally on fire.... Bob Prechter entered a few real money 3 month option trading contests, I remember he won one of them with a 444% return in the 3 months of the contest.

I did a Google news search and he is running a team of people who are catering to institutional clients from what I can tell... here is there SPX outlook as of 10 minutes ago:

Posted On: April 12, 2017 10:29 AM
Bottom Line: Allowing for waves circle-d up followed by circle-e down to complete a wave-4 corrective triangle.
June ES e-mini futures premium = 4 4/12/2017 10:27:28 AM ET - (Last: 2350.26) Trying to find a foothold this morning that completes wave (b) within circle-d. We’ll look for support at or above 2345 on another pullback to completes a wave (b) flat or zigzag. "4/12/2017 9:17:08 AM ET - (Last: 2350.76) To start today’s session both charts show only the wave-4 triangle pattern in progress. Up from yesterday’s pivot low counts as part of circle-d of a suspected bullish wave-4 triangle. Look for circle-d resistance within the 2366/71 range. From there down in circle-e would be expected to visit the 2351 area, maybe a bit deeper. Of course, the triangle pattern though it appears to be the game must be the correct pattern for these expectations to pan out. An alternate count that would look initially exactly like a wave-4 triangle right through the pivot of e-wave that allows trade to turn up again, would be if the triangle itself was one large circle b-wave within a larger downside zigzag yet to be seen. While we’ll cross that bridge when and if we come to it, for now it’s enough to merely mention it so bulls don’t become complacent about the current pattern unfolding. What we know for sure, is that the index cannot move above Wednesday’s 2378.36 high or below yesterday’s 2337.54 low to be able to maintain the bullish wave-4 triangle shape. Anticipating the action in-between could be dicey, and should be left to those most adept at quick in-out participation. Comments and questions welcome. Tom Prindaville ProServices@elliottwave.com