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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (19025)	4/13/2017 7:35:56 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By Hawkmoon roguedolphin Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox, We have to see how much global military activity transpires..... Largest Non nuclear bomb ever used today... The North Korean's are going to detonate a Nuclear device underground... what shall the The US and China do.... those following the news know it's more complex and nuanced... and the global geopolitical landscape is a multi level chess game... unfolding in an interesting fashion. I am not surprised that the stock market ended the shortened week on weakness.... the TNX us very soft. much to watch and observe and absorb . over the Easter weekend..... ISIS hammered as US drops biggest non-nuclear weapon ever: 21,000lb bomb is used in anger for the first time to obliterate jihadists' caves in AfghanistanU.S. dropped its largest non-nuclear weapon after targeting ISIS in AfghanistanThe GBU-43 bomb weighs 21,600 pounds, is 30 feet long, contains 11 tons of explosives and carries a mile-wide blast radiusIt can create a blast crater more than 300 meters wide after being dropped from a Hercules MC-130 cargo planeTrump pledged in 2015 that if he became president he would 'bomb the st out of ' ISIS On Thursday he called the bombing 'another successful job' and said he had delegated strike authority to his military commandersPentagon denies that it was revenge for the death on Saturday of a Green Beret soldier in the same region of Pakistan** Read more: dailymail.co.uk Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter \| DailyMail on Facebook U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches For Nuclear Triggerby WILLIAM M. ARKIN, CYNTHIA MCFADDEN, COURTNEY KUBE and KENZI ABOU-SABE S The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News. North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend. The world has a lot to think about and investors have to watch if we cascade into a great escalation of military action. Healthcare and maintenance of the ACA us also on the burner. John

To: The Ox who wrote (19025)

4/17/2017 12:24:22 PM

From: John Pitera

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Hawkmoon

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox,

an interesting observation on the VXV .....

Speaking of implied volatility, here is a note from Jim Carroll (Managing Partner, LongRun Capital Management) on the inverted volatility curve.

Most investors are familiar with the VIX index that measures implied stock market volatility for the next thirty days. Not as many know VXV, which does the same for a longer (three-month) period. One way to gauge investor fear is to see where VIX is trading relative to VXV. A ratio north of one means that people are more worried about now versus later. Inverting the ratio shows that those spikes above 1 tend to line up well with bottoms in the stock market.

Source: LongRun Capital Management

Having crossed above 1 on Thursday, we might be at or near a short-term bottom. Or we could see a more pronounced rout before turning higher. The other thing to notice is that the first stab down is often followed by another before a sustained rally follows. Be careful out there.

The Elliott wave Long term view of the 30 year bond......

Posted On: March 31, 2017 09:29 PM
Bottom Line:
A *Supercycle degree double zigzag from the September 1981 major low appears to have completed with a Cycle degree ending diagonal wave c from the 104^16 low of June 200*7. It's interesting to note, though, that there has been an important bottom associated with the nominal topping period of the displayed 77-month cycle, which actually seems to split in half and produce a half-cycle low instead of a top at its mid-point. That may be the case here, as well, with a wave (2) rally on tap from the March low. Below are two monthly charts of the yield index of the 30-year bond. With the drop to a new all-time low at 22.01 (2.201 %), both show a possible completed wave count for a lasting bottom from which an initial rally may be complete. Finally, at the bottom of the page is a monthly chart of the TLT ETF. Last year's July high also appears to be a major top as the completion of a Cycle degree ending diagonal wave c from the June 2007 low. -- Peter DeSario