| Posted On: April 19, 2017 12:36 PM |
Bottom Line: We are cautioned that all of wave (c) within circle-d of a wave-4 triangle may be complete. Otherwise, at least one more way up could be seen before the d-wave within the bullish fourth wave triangle is finished.
|
 June ES e-mini futures premium = 4
4/19/2017 12:32:14 PM ET - (Last: 2345.76)
This fade from the early session high has effectively closed this morning’s gap. A simple equal leg corrective zigzag would be expected to have unfolding into the current pullback low. Unless the grey wave (c) label is to be proven right, price must turn up again. It doesn’t have to however, which makes the immediate situation a bit tricky. Best to allow the index to tips its hand here, since the broader pattern does not lie in the balance, at least not around current levels.
"4/19/2017 11:24:11 AM ET - (Last: 2349.42)
The grey (c) wave would have no merit if this current fade off the session high is only fourth wave action within wave (c). Very near term trend-following technicals ae more aligned with the “still higher” scenario before wave (c) is complete, which for now helps to keep the focus up for at least one more wave. Getting on top of 2351 would encourage this view to expect a new session high to potentially complete circle-d.
"4/19/2017 10:26:05 AM ET - (Last: 2349.99)
Note that up from yesterday’s low, five waves can already be counted to be in place. Since that is all that wave (c) requires to be seen as complete, we placed a gray alternate (c) wave label above the session high to make this possibility more obvious. Point is, often contracting triangles, particularly in the wave-d and e phase of the structure, become smaller and quicker than otherwise anticipated. Very near term trend-following technicals are in a bullish mode to suggest still higher could be the game into higher cited targets. This keeps the focus up for this round, with trade expected to hold-on to the 2351 area if this leg up has a bit more to go.
"4/19/2017 9:23:24 AM ET - (Last: 2351.24)
The main thing price cannot do and still see the wave-4 triangle confidently intact, would be to unexpectedly drop below last Thursday’s closing low of 2328.95. What is expected if the index is indeed forming a triangle, would be to move impulsively higher directly into at least the 2354/61 range. That action would be sufficient to complete the circle d-wave of the wave-4 triangle, thus setting the stage for another three-wave pullback in the final e-wave leg down within the structure. A failed attempt to move beyond the proportionally important 2361 second level subdivide, would suggest a retreat could follow that could look for e-wave support right back within the 2345/40 area to complete the entire pattern. Too far beyond 2361, certainly 2371, would caution that some other pattern may have unfolded. However, what the intraday has stressed is that overall higher within a resumption of the greater advance is expected. That is, bears looking for a place to park it for the duration would be action viewed as premature.
Comments and questions welcome.
Tom Prindaville
ProServices@elliottwave.com
|
|
