SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Biotech / Medical : Techniclone (TCLN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alys Hall who wrote (1010)1/7/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: shero  Respond to of 3702
 
I can't say how much stock the insiders have on margin--maybe they've finished selling, maybe not. But I think we'll all be laughing at the stock this cheap, and sooner rather than later. One can buy this company for less than the value of LYM-1. Its ridiculous but the pendulum always swings too far to each side before going back to the middle--or fair valuation.

As for Davis' comment about NASDAQ volume this is what I think he means. Reported volume for NASDAQ is a slippery animal. Volume is sometimes double reported so what looks like 230,000 might only be half. Its anybodys guess. But the volume has been high, and the selling is being absorbed. Someone seems willing to buy an awful lot of this stock, otherwise the stock would be lower.

Its too bad that the predictions of forced margin selling came to pass. But we should get used to seeing these three guys on the sell side. They all have six figure loans that have to be re-paid on a schedule. Where else are the going to get the money?



To: Alys Hall who wrote (1010)1/7/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Jim Baker  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 3702
 
Alys, you are now beginning to grasp some important issues. Let's talk false prophets. Davis and Shero and Dave suggested I was some sort of babe in the investing woods, a sucker for bright wall streeters like themselves. Rather than get into the mud to fight it out with them, I asked Davis a simple factual question about his track record. He never answered. But people on AOL did. If you believe them, it appears his track record isn't pretty. Sorta looks like TCLN wasn't his first dog.

So it goes on the Net. You have a few know it alls who get up on the soap box and get real used to the sound of their own voices. If there is nothing to report from the company, they start to tell you about generic developments in the industry, and how great it might be for the company, even if there is no real connection between the generic developments and the company. Then, if there isn't enough to talk about, they start to tell you where they went to dinner last night, or fishing last week. They give you breathless real-time updates on what the market makers are doing with the stock. Pretty soon, you are going along with the flow, since it is all so smooth and comfortable.

But then you look back and realize that for all the chit chat, they never told you the stock was going straight-line from $7 to $1.75.

Then you begin to realize that the new CEO isn't a cure-all, that the CEO isn't even priority A or B.

Let's try some common sense. The market has now been told by Davis and shero that a new CEO is coming next week. It may even be true.

Knowing this, the market still drives the stock down.

Ask yourself why!

Here's my guess as to what is really important, listed in rough order of importance:

1. Where is the new Oncolym partner to replace Alpha?

2. What is the status of the Peregrine technology licensing?

3. Can new funding (again) be obtained prior to the company running out of cash?

4. Can the stock price rise before the Reg-D cap is set in March?

5. Who is the new CEO and how long will it take him to find his way to the executive washroom?

You are welcome to add your own guesses as to what is really driving this stock and what is really important.



To: Alys Hall who wrote (1010)1/7/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Jim Baker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3702
 
Alys, please keep in mind that I am merely responding to your apparent need to understand both how we got here and where things are headed.

My intent is not to attack anyone, but to instead point out that despite their good intentions, some people have "gone internet" and for quite a while they have failed to make a meaningful contribution to your or my understanding of this stock.

I refuse to act like the proverbial "deer in the headlights" and freeze up (waiting, waiting, waiting for a new CEO).

The new CEO is indeed important. But IMHO the management/activist cat fight is not the only factor influencing this stock at the moment. I listed some other factors in a prior post.

Imagine you were a new investor looking at this stock. Would you pass on making the investment because of management? No, you would have no opinion of management, so that would not be a big issue either way. But you would be concerned about the looming Reg-D cap period, the burn to cash ratio, the "maybe yes, maybe no" clinical trials, and the lack of partners.

The new CEO is not the only near-term event (or lack of event) that will determine the stock price in April of 1998, or 1999, or 2000.

I sure would like management to come out and tell us what the status of both the Lym and TNT trials is. Don't they have a responsibility to do so?

I also agree with shero about margin calls ad their impact on the stock. Both management and activists have probably had some big margin calls the past few months.
--------------------------------------
Or, we can talk some more about what was on 60 Minutes last week!