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Strategies & Market Trends : Thailand -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (372)	1/7/1998 9:29:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 457

Hi everyone I wish so much I could get bullish on Thailand but apart from the occassional bear market rally I just can't see these markets going anywhere in 1998. The equity in Thailand is worth at best zero and probably a lot less as the foreign debt has increased in Baht terms due to the depreciation. There is still no clear policy for dealing with the economic/financial problems, they are not going to meet the IMF targets and FBCB is the only company willing to give up control to a foreign partner (Citibank) I am still convinced that the TFB stock price is going to keep going lower. It's still trading above book value and needs to do a huge capital raising excercise. It should fall 50% in Baht terms and probably a lot more in US$ terms. More than 75% of the companies listed in Thailand are bankrupt and that number increases the more the Baht collapses. For Indonesia the picture is even worse and you can throw in huge political/social risk for extra downside. The budget today was a complete joke. Anyone bullish? Please tell me why!