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To: uu who wrote (12980)	1/7/1998 2:40:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

<< (at the same time you claim he said to short Hong Kong) he said to short US bonds also (the 30 year yeild was at around 6.75% at the time, today it is at 5.7% and falling). >> I will concede that J. Rogers hasn't gotten the interest rate picture right---lately. He was highly leveraged bonds on the long side a couple of years ago. But what you fail to mention is that he recognized that bonds weren't going his way and he choose to step aside and watch from the sidelines. He shorted the bond futures when the 30 year cash was yielding somewhere around 6.125 - 6.25. His trade instantly started going his way and he was up a few points. I remember Ron Insana congratulating him on his trade. The trade started going against him and he didn't want to lose his profits so he covered for a couple point gain around 113. He clearly stated it the following week on CNBC and said he had no position in bonds and was flat. That was around 40 or 50 basis points ago. True, Jimmy hasn't been right on the general trend of long-term interest rates (recently) but I don't think he lost much if any money. The last time I heard him speak (just recently) he said he still had no position in bonds. You should stick to his INTC short which was a disaster. That one he was clearly wrong. At least he admitted it and said he won't make that mistake again. Furthermore, I don't think it's fair to say that he told everyone to short bonds. He simply pointed out his views of where he thought it was headed and what he was doing. I can't honestly say I heard all of his commentary when the long bond was at 8% but I know in the last few months he hasn't been telling people to short bonds. He said he was puzzled by the action in the bond market and was looking to short it when the time looked right. This is quite a contrast from your characterization that he has been imploring people to short bonds straight from 8% down to 5.72%. That is simply not the case. Also, you keep making fun of his suggestion about Sri Lankan tea. I'm having a hard time finding a recent quote on tea prices but I did a quick search and found several articles from this year with titles that said things like "Tea makes a four-year high" and "Tea continues it's strong push upward". You seem to like to make fun of his N. Korean stamp and coin suggestion as well. Ok, we've heard his suggestion and all of it's accompanying criticism, now let's hear your #1 investment idea for 1998. If you can't supply me an answer I'll have to assume that you haven't got any better ideas than Mr. Rogers. Correct?