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To: cfimx who wrote (3570)	1/7/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: Ali Chen	Respond to of 6843

<Ali, paul engel said you know everything!> As usual in most topics, he is hyping. <Intc I think believes that national and amd won't be able to produce the volumes Ibm and cpq will need. ie over promise and under deliver.> I do not know what INTC thinks, but there is a natural movement in the whole PC industry to escape claws of Intel monopoly. When the desire [desperation?] is mutual (between PC makers and competitiors to Intel), it may give results even in rather tough situations. <Also, are there any good www sources for getting unit and price numbers on intc shipments historical and estimates? Thanks.> Reports from some industry analysts contain the price volume and blended ASP, but not unit info. Albert Kovalyov was the best poster of this kind of info on SI, but he committed a web-suicide few months ago in protest against AMD bashers like Paul, Yousef, Stickman, etc. I hope he is still around with us and watching. Hello, Albert! The unit info is heavily guarded secret of Intel. For this internal data ask Engel, he claims to have internal sources and is an Intel accountant on SI.

To: cfimx who wrote (3570)	1/7/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6843

twister: RE: PII market share and Intel ASP. As Ali said, Paul Engel is the source for most Intel info Here's a post from him techstocks.com In it he estimates that 25% of 4Q production (unit sales) is PII, 2% is Pentium PRO. I think I saw these numbers from CNet also, and I've read someplace that Intel doesn't expect 50% PII until mid '98. With 25% PII sales, I don't see how the average ASP of Intel could have gone up in the current quarter. Assume 10% of Q3 unit sales were PII, 3% PPro. Then 14% of sales went up by $350 (average price difference for PII/PPro vs older chips) 10% of sales DROPPED by at least $200 (price drop of PII chips) 2% of sales stayed the same (PPro didn't change much) 74% of sales dropped by ???. ??? is the drop in price of your average Pentium and MMX chip. Its got to be at least a drop of $50. So, 0.14350 + 0.020 - 0.10200 -0.7450 = -$8 Using these numbers you get an ASP DROP of $8 Kumar (an analyst) estimated an ASP INCREASE of $25 for Intel. Doesn't compute. Petz