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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berk who wrote (375)	5/29/2017 8:30:39 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13789

Well, well, well..... Zerohedge must be looking. It has today posted Hunt's interview at Macrovoices, incorporating his charts: zerohedge.com

To: Berk who wrote (375)	7/20/2017 11:25:07 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13789

WHERE IS CHINA GOING? Published on March 8, 2017 Roberto NemrPartner at Macrosector, Senior analyst/advisor at Southpointe capital, author at Economia Hoje and Whatscall sites I have been reading a lot about China recently from the opus magnum trilogy of Frank Dikotter to the book of David Shambaugh. This together with all sort of articles made me think about some possibilities: Is China stuck in the middle-income trap like Brazil in the 80s or will it follow Japan which after reaching US$10,000 per inhabitant gave another leap until finally it got stuck in the 90s as a rich country? Is China following in the steps of Soviet Union in the 50-80s where following a massive industrialization the transition to a consumer society was failed provoking the fall of the system? Will Xi Jinping follow on the steps of comrade Mao, which after the failures of the 50s industrialization doubled his bets provoking the great famine, and then doubled again with the Cultural Revolution, and only after his death in 1976 Deng pursued controlled market opening and change of course? Meaning will Xi change course to a soft reform or pursue with a hardline path, making it more difficult for China to adjust towards a domestic consumption model or even leading to a hard landing? My main takes are: Xi will act like Mao, doubling his bets on the hardline. The growth targets will not be achieved. Trump will help him to be more nationalistic. Some external conflict could distract the population as Mao's involvement in Korea. Do not expect any political opening of China. In the economy, unproductive deployment of capital and credit largesse with state banks will reach a limit. Mao copied in the 50s what Stalin did in the 30s provoking hunger in the fields with forced industrialization. Deng opened only the economy cautiously differently from Gorbatchov which ultimately led to Putin. Xi will not soften on politics and internal dissent will continue to be treated hardly. Control on capital outflows will not be enough to keep a grip on domestic unbalances. China is not Japan. That is a given. The global conditions that permitted Japan to continue growing rapidly in the 80s or even Korea are not present today. China's population is much larger and the government is not creating a social network or the democratic institutions to permit a domestic consumption boom, particularly technology-driven. In any case, only export-led growth creates over 5% long term rates. I think there will be a big disappointment with growth rates in the years to come, and reviews downwards will be accompanied by hard talk. linkedin.com