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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (1912)	1/7/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 5676

Yes GZ, everybody says the Long Bond should go to 5 and gold should go to $200, I'm feeling very contrary to both. BWDIK Here is my AAPL indicator, at the August 6th Macworld we had a follow thru push of 3 points to 29+ on the 8/7 after the initial run from 20 to 26, showing me that the market was full of exhuberance and ready to bid up anything that had a story (and it did with all the small caps and techs into 10/8) Yesterday's Macworld news popped AAPL from 16 to 19, but today it's selling off, telling me everyone is just happy to take a profit and run. Yesterday's story of a profitable Apple is a much bigger miracle than getting a measly 150M from Billy, who is trying to fend off DOJ. Hemlines Coming Down and So is the Apple. quote.yahoo.com Looks like 960 didn't hold, in bear markets there are no supports. BWDIK

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (1912)	1/7/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Since BEARX is an open-end mutual fund that holds a portfolio of treasuries, about eighty short positions in different stocks, and various option positions (mostly index puts), I wonder how it can be a candidate for technical analysis. There's no way for anyone to accumulate the stock, sell it short, sell it, or write options on it as can be done with, say, PDG. So how can technical analysis tell anything at all? The only thing is that to some extent BEARX is an inverse proxy for the NASDAQ, or an average between the NASDAQ and SOXX. It also tracks inversely the T. Rowe Price Science/Technology fund. Also, since the portfolio turnover is better than 400%, few investors can know at any moment exactly what it is tracking. The price of BEARX is largely just an inverse measure of the general movement of the market (though the management does somewhat better than that). To me, looking at the chart pattern of BEARX is like looking at a road map of where you have come from and trying to guess where the road goes after it goes off the edge of map. On the other hand, if you think that most stocks are overvalued and feel that a significant (25% or better) downturn is coming, BEARX is a comfortable buy and hold.