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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dvdw© who wrote (134018)	6/2/2017 12:59:31 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 218262

Are Chinese retail savers taking on more risk than they assume when putting their savings into a bank WMP (wealth management product) or Universal Life products jnstead of a savings account? Absolutely yes, without question. As the Chinese government is tighrening the screws on these products, Foresee Life, the largest insurer in China is begging for relief from the sanctions on jntroducing new products, so there's clearly a whif of ponzi scheme about these products, where only new money can prevent a collapse in the asset value of what these products invest in. - ft.com So Chinese savers are probably in for a rude shock and will wish they had stuck with bank account interest. There's already been a painful learning experience for retail customers in China with the Chinese stock market. But the Communist Party stepped into the market as an active buyer to prevent stock price declines past a certain point. So China does have a debt problem, but it's a problem owed to citizens of China - so it's not that much of a problem for others. China's leaders don't have to pretend to be running a free-market economy or a democracy, or even pretend to be fair - so they have far more options to resolve these problems. People owed debt become shareholders, bankruptcy without the actual name. They simply want a resolution without civil insurrection. But we see with projects like Belt and Road they're looking for other investors outside if their economy because they recognize they're overextended, but wanting foreign investment capital is not the same as getting it - so this will impact China's economic growth rate.

To: dvdw© who wrote (134018)	6/2/2017 8:51:22 AM
From: bart13	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Respond to of 218262

Is the reasoning true, false contrived? If I could only choose one, I'd choose contrived mostly due to the source. DR is about some fear mongering and pushing their own products. That's not to say that there's only small chances for SHTF in China over the next few years, but their success in walking the various razor blades over the last decade plus and not bloodily crash & burn has been amazing. They've played the various sentiment & PR games about as well as the Fed has, and IMO still has surprises and unused tools in their quivers, especially in carrots for the greed freaks that tend to drive markets. The basic shortcomings in the article are about the focus being too narrow, one example being minimal coverage of monetary policy and activities.

To: dvdw© who wrote (134018)	6/2/2017 3:52:32 PM
From: Gemlaoshi	1 Recommendation Recommended By Elroy Jetson Respond to of 218262

dvdw, It's all a matter of maintaining a bit of perspective. To wit: In 1988, all ten of the largest banks in the world were Japanese In 1989, the Neikei reached 39,000, the most expensive stock market in the world Japanese real estate was creating overnight billionaires Japanese companies were buying US real estate, golf courses, farmland, forests, natural resources It could go on forever because they owed all of their debt to themselves The Japanese were going to corner world resources and leave the US a pauper Japanese carmakers were going to put US carmakers out of business The Japanese were going to become the dominant world player and leave the US in shambles In a couple of quotes attributed to JM Keynes (or not): "The world can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent", and "There is nothing more disasterous than a rational investment plan in an irrational world". Does the Chinese situation show signs of being irrational? Definitely Could it continue for another 10 years? Possibly Will the Chinese take over the world? Probably not. watch and wait Dave