hello dalroi,
(1) like the choice of careful words <<... when and if ...>>
(2) i had decreased my attention to the market since 2012 due to bandwidth constraints.
my recent attendance in the armstrong conference in preparation for anticipated re-engagement w/ the world of paper and our dialogue during your visit to hk on what could be and what we must deliberate and might decide to do, i took reading of my allocation gauge:
22% cash (almost all of it in HKD, that which is close to home)
15.5% physical & paper metals (~75/25 @ current spot)
48.5% r.e. (valued at mix of historical and recent trade benchmarks depending intentions)
14% direct investment (valued @ significantly below cost given illiquidity and any number of risks,
but cannot psychologically write to zero)
realize that at the sorry end perhaps all except the metals in hand must be written down to zero, after which 'they' would make metals ownership illegal and shutdown all exchanges.
given that i had devoted much of my bandwidth since 2012 to the last item, direct investment where i try to do some good, the rest of the allocations were more rather than less on auto-pilot. am looking at the cards i am thus dealt through my own lack of attention, and pondering.
(3) the armstrong script plays true to me, however / and / but prolonged officialdom intervention / manipulation / obfuscation would just make the armstrong scenario play out with greater albeit delayed kick, below are some elements of the arena in which we find ourselves, ready or not
(3-i) increasing loss of confidence in governments
(3-ii) increased revenue grab by same governments, via taxation, printing, pilfering and outright confiscation
(3-iii) w/ intervention-generated near-zero / below-zero interest rates, bonds are priced at mathematical near-pinnacle
(3-iv) the largest markets are bond and currency markets, way larger than the tradable real estate market (especially w/i fiscally positive domains under rule-of-true-law protocol populated by folks w/ strong personal balance sheet) and stock market of necessary-liquidity / needed-depth
(3-v) continued essentially-free flow of capital is an assumption we cannot afford to hold, especially as CRS (Common Reporting Standard) are being implemented and so few are aware or even care that everything financial and much real estate shall fall under its tyranny
(3-vi) continued free-enough travel is another assumption we may have to give up
(3-v) the shut-down of some exchanges be possibility we have to take account
(3-vi) cashless would mean something possibly awful, and certainly nothing brilliant
(3-vii) the at-first-gradual fund flows from public asset (sovereign bond and dragging along corp bonds) allocation to private asset (r.e. / stocks), and from weaker towards stronger currencies dictates a ramping of stocks w/i USD / USD-pegged domains, and real estate of places where folks feel comfortable that it would hold some smattering of value
(3-viii) in the midst of all the movements, weirder and stranger-still machinations of leverage (i.e. certain ETFs) and fascinating objects of speculation (i.e. crypto tokens, weed farming, etc) would gain popularity until one fateful day triggered by either government intervention, or just a very large case of fraud
(3-ix) penultimate episode, ramp of stocks and USD, and collapse of EU and emerging markets, possibly cratering of gold (to 600)
(3-x) ultimate episode of the playbook, absolute loss of confidence in public asset and easy-to-sieze assets, and the rise of the eternal crypto currency we call gold
(3-xi) the playbook is not promising until change of global leadership, and subsequent rise from the ashes of collapse here there everywhere
(3-xii) the next play would mirror much of this play, but starting at zero-reset beginning
(4) computer voice-over:
players, the market game is rigged to f*ck folks up in the worst ways, where one is not allowed to know the rules, except that it would be continuously amended, always at a time inconvenient and in a manner against most of the remaining players, including but not limited to sudden subtraction or unexpected division of ammo supply, as most must lose, many shall not be permitted to keep gains, all must pay, and then the winners also get to die. you are not allowed to quit, and there is no neutral position / null stance. enjoy.
following the guy w/ the map likely will be fatal. conviction would definitely be fatal.
ready or not, on 3, 2, play
(5) 2018 - 2026, TeoTwawKi, and 2032 Darkest Interregnum, the later the worse, and the less convenient
(6) with family in toll, elders and young ones, we in truth are all metaphysical refugees, except most do not realise the truth, and do not play accordingly
cheers, tj
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