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To: Rational who wrote (5828)	1/7/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27307

Even though the U.S. trade deficit is high, I don't think this will be much of an influence on exchange rates. If interest rates are higher in the U.S. than Japan, it lends itself to the dollar becoming stronger against the yen. For years, I kept hearing people say that the high U.S. government deficit was keeping the current account deficit high. Now, the U.S. government deficit is near zero, and yet the current account deficit is still high. Until something changes, the U.S. is still the safe haven of the world and will continue to have a strong currency. KJ

To: Rational who wrote (5828)	1/7/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

unless Gephardt articulates the danger and wins nomination. Just what Asia needs - a protectionist in the White House (even the nomination should scare the world). I ask you, can even Super(banker)man stop a locamotive? Money will keep flowing into Dollars as long as real interest rates remain high. 3-month T-bills still yield over 5%, about the same as a year ago, but a year ago inflation was running 3%. Now it's going to zero. But can the Fed really cut rates? Can they risk stimulating and overstimulated economy? Do they want an unemployment rate lower than the average wage increases? No rate cut, at least not more than a quarter point and even that not soon. G-man will wait. Regards, Bob