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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (19387)	6/12/2017 1:08:19 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi OX. the NDX really broke in price more on the triple momentum in daily price divergence compared to the March and April sideways correction. The NDX futures were incredibly twitchy for much of the morning .... John Najarian was talking about the QQQ's doing a full session volume in the first 15 minutes fastest volume he has ever seen...... I know the The VXN went from 13.30 on Friday all the way up to the 21 area. the SPX futures are more stable. John

To: The Ox who wrote (19387)

6/21/2017 2:47:25 PM

From: John Pitera

2 Recommendations

Recommended By
roguedolphin
The Ox

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox, USD - Crude - Gold -Silver seasonality charts

The USD index did stop going down on June 6th.... we have a potential basing pattern....
it's reasonable to advocate a further rally.... but it's really better to deconstruct the USD index
to it's major components , EUR/USD. USD/JPY, and then the GPB, Yuan, AUD, CAD CHF etc.

The USD index has not been the driver of the global asset cycle this year.

The EUR as I mentioned back on June 6th could not take out a very strong Fibonacci
cluster and Arc at 1.1335 and yet it has not corrected that much....... we could see renewed strength come back into the EUR in coming weeks. This is GOING to be one of the drivers of asset class movements going forward... based on what it does.

The Yen is also peaked on June 6th and is always a major player especially in this wacky flat US
yield curve world...where the 5 -30 year yield is back at 2007 levels and the 2 to 10 year yield spread is just about back at the lowest and flatest levels since the GFC of 2008.

The JPY is at a support area.

$WTIC crude has been hit by sustained global over supply area due to technological innovotation that
lowers extraction costs and brings down the $USD per barrel amount break even point for major US fracking fields in Eagle Ford, the Permian, Oklahoma.... as well as numerous overseas producers.

Daily crude............ the money flows have deteriorated and the credit risks are again on
the table.. I talk to friends in the Oil service sector in Houston and they are getting hit by
customer bankruptcies again.

I have a very good friend Andrew G. who had to throw the towel in on
1 of his companies and is disappointed at the bankruptcy of his biggest
client. The family company has low cost of production land and so they
are ok for the long term and are diversified out of energy.

But he's thinking seriously about going to work for a deeper pocketed
company as it's tough in the oil patch.

Deusche bank is one to watch for as credit problems develop; they have energy
exposure and an array of high yield (junk) credit exposure

the daily and weekly charts are not encouraging

The cummulative A/D line is negative, as is the Money Flow index on the 1 year daily chart of DB, The RSI MA model is on a sell and DB is having trouble holding it's 200 dma.

The 5 year weekly DB chart is a very similar story -- the Cum a/d improved markedly from sept s 2016 until Jan and the caved in. the Money flow index has peaked in Jan 2017 and has weakened.

the RSI MA system is tenuous at best... The Chaikin Money flow index has gone negative.... Yet
DB has put in a solid bottom last Sept... back when we really had the real epic struggle of the Central Banks
having to kick the addiction to negative CB government bond negative yields.

DB should provide a buying opportunity over coming weeks as ... the the US stock market has overall good prospects going into 2018 aand on to 2019... (with the caveat that we get an excellent buying opportunity on a nice legitamite pullback.... which the novices will view as a panic in Q 3 of this year. But the big dip that we want to have our shopping lists out and have nice low bids in place for should occur toward end of Q3.... and is most likely an Oct early Q4 time for a low...

( giving guidance for several months out... comes with the caveat that we have to work with what the markets give us. I don't have all of Sept and October's editions of the WSJ and the Reuters news from later this summer and early fall.... if you do... please be generous and share them with me -vbg-)

The 10 year seasonality chart of GLD suggest August will be a good month for gold , so as the price has come down Gold enthusiasts and me ( I always want enough at least enough gold to bride the boarder guard...) should be on the look out for an upcoming entry point that should develop...

The 10 year Silver seasonality chart... suggests that we should be looking for a longside entry in Silver and that is totally logical as SILVER leads Gold.........

The SPX continues to try to move higher however the NDX , FANG, SMH , NVDA AAPL are all struggling and suggest a further short term push down to shake up the fear level a bit.

this is from monday... and is still true..... especailly as the IPO market has really heated up and the street
is really trying to take advantage of the IPO window

Message 31152463

I added a bit more info on GZ's thread post than on my nearly identical one on the market lab

Message 31152460

The SPX moves upward -- NDX and FANG charts diverge and they are sure biotech is breaking out

look at the IBB has it broken out? CNBC is saying things that have not happened... they may happen, but
cnbc and even on bloomberg... every voice this afternoon is saying that it's a metaphysical certainty that the IBB, NDX, FANG, SMH are going to sail on to new highs and go higher....... everyone is leaning to one side of the boat it appears.

at the momment ... it can happen....again they are saying that technology has had it's best session of the year... and the IPO market heats up.

Glenn,

Excellent Recap of the Amazon-Whole Foods acquistion and ramifications. --

here are a few of today's charts very interesting situation.

The NASD comp , the NDX, FB, AAPL, FB, GOOL, AMZN, NVDA ,the XLK all have similar charts...

they suggest the possibility of more downward corrective activity and the zeitgeist commentary today is that the NDX was up over 1 % and that all these stocks are back in gear and at their highs.... that's NOT the case...

stay tuned....

ndx.... is showing momentum divergences.....

SMH 1 year chart

AAPL... everyone should listen to former John Sculley former CEO of APPL, and Pepsi...

and current chairman of RxAdvance... saying that we have moved beyond linear time into exponential time where the technologies grow month after month --- year after year..... very interesting. That type of talk
sounds like 1998...... or 1999 ........ it's difficult to assess.

video.cnbc.com

I like NVDA, and GOOGL on a relative basis. compared to the other FANG and semiconductor names...

However, with the consensus that I hear this afternoon that everything is A OK with the NDX and the FANG and SMH and NVDA stocks.... does not square with the charts.

a powerful bull market and even a dip below the 50 dma is not going to end it.... on a dime......

Carter Worth had a chart of the S & P technology index and he says we came to within 1 point of the high of March 27th 2000 on June 9th...

the thing is I can not find that particular index on stockcharts or elsewhere. I am going to write to him for clarification as to what he's speaking of.

JP

and with the talk of BITCOIN going to 500K yesterday afternoon and even Rick Santelli commenting that if the tax and health care initiatives by the congress work out that the stockmarket will look like a Gemini rocket booster acceleration phase where we can see a 5 to 10 % increase in the US stock averages.. continues to mirror the theme that we probably have too much bullishness and need a wave C down similar to the wave A decline we saw on Friday June 9th and Monday June 12th..... If we are blessed to get that we get a fantastic entry for Santelli's 5 tp 10% uber powerful rally in stocks which is what my proprietary indicator the JJP EUR/JPY:$WTIC Average true range Moving average system is forecasting.

JJP

To: The Ox who wrote (19387)

6/23/2017 6:23:26 AM

From: John Pitera

2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Brian Sullivan
The Ox

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

The healthcare sector and the IBB have been showing VERY strong relative performance
recently over the past 6 weeks as money managers appear to be rotating through the
various sectors.... a couple of money managers were showing the sector performance compared to the SPX and even the S&P tech sector is lagging relative to the XLV ETF the past few weeks.

the XLV Health care ETF has been exceptionally strong. Talk about strong performance since mid may.... and

a 1 year daily chart of the XLV spdr ETF.

The weekly XLV is also very impressive....... The Momentum and Money flows are through the roof and we have new highs and no underwater sellers in since the ETF is at new highs.

the sector, XLV... It and TSLA,VRTX,NVDA, BABA, are leading the charge in terms of the very strongest recent stock performance.

The weekly IBB is showing how the biotech are picking up the pace to the upside although the IBB is not at an all time high.... has some overhead resistance levels as contrasted with the XLV healthcare ETF.

very powerful mojo to this market.

Look at the 19 year monthly of the healthcare XLV.. ETF....

it's so far above the levels it was in 2000 it's really remarkable ... it's been quite a ride since March of 2009 for this sector.

John