To: FTJoe who wrote (34297 ) 1/7/1998 2:00:00 PM From: (Bob) Zumbrunnen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 55532
Off-topic. It's FTEL. For me, it's two reasons. One is that we both happen to be here anyway, so we're doing just brief mentions and trying to be unobtrusive about it. The other is that flip-flopping of shares (as I've been doing) is rarely something that should be openly discussed in a co's thread. And lest anyone think I'm hyping it, I'm not. Since news just came out today (and the price went up 50% in a few days, probably in anticipation of it), it could very well be currently at the top. My apologies to anyone I may've annoyed with those postings. I'll probably never stop, but I do at least try to keep it minimal, and I'm not intending those posts to annoy. Getting back on-topic, I don't know if I ever stated the one scenario I see as possible (though not likely, IMO) in which all of the shareholders will end up doing quite well. I think if all of the following conditions are met, holders will have chosen luckily: 1. Riley's bought share count is accurate. My own feeling is that the likelihood of this is far below 50%. 2. The issued share count is as Riley believes it to be. I'd rate this barely below 50%. It's a coin toss and won't be known until a new 10 is out. I rate it barely below only because I don't really believe management has ever acted in the best interest of outside shareholders. 3. Management can improve fundamentals (and not just say they have; actually do it) to a point that either makes the book value worth a sizable fraction of the market cap, or brings reasonably expected near-term earnings to at least a few cents per share. 4. When people start selling (assuming they're selling into a short squeeze), they do so with small limit orders. If the squeeze is reality, large market sell orders will get raped as an easy way to cover a short position. If this plays out the way Pugs, Weber, Riley, etal assert that it will, it will serve for years to come as an example of an abusive naked short position (I don't dispute that they exist in other companies) backfiring horribly, making future abuses much less likely, or at least more carefully thought out and executed. If this plays out the way Kugler, Martin, and to a certain extent, I think it will, it will serve for years to come as an example of how following hype and unverifiable "stories" can be the ruin of an investor. It wouldn't bruise my ego a bit to come in here later and say "Pugs, Weber, Riley: Though I despised your methods, you were right about the following points......" I don't think it'll happen, but I hope it does.