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To: Goose94 who wrote (30900)6/14/2017 7:58:02 AM
From: Goose94Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 203329
 
Yangarra Resources (YGR-T) budget, its production guidance and its expectations for its Cardium wells. The company had already said it would update its Cardium well models, or type curves, following the completion of a recent 10-well program, for which it used different drilling and completion techniques. It started this program last August and had all 10 wells on production as at the end of April. Based on the results, Yangarra is now forecasting "better initial flow rates, higher pressures and lower-than-expected declines," as it trumpeted this morning. As an example, the 90-day initial production rate (IP90) forecast is now 425 barrels of oil equivalent a day, whereas past wells had shown IP90 rates of closer to 300 barrels a day. Yangarra has increased this year's budget to $70-million from $50-million so it can keep drilling steadily in the Cardium. It has also increased its full-year production guidance to a range of 5,500 to 6,000 barrels a day from a range of 4,500 to 5,000 barrels a day. By comparison, it averaged just 2,950 barrels a day in 2016.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Sam Roach applauded the new models. "Type curve better than expected," he declared in a research note this morning. He noted, however, "some puts and takes" compared with what he had put in his own forecasts. In particular, Yangarra's expected all-in cost per well is $3.75-million, whereas Mr. Roach had modelled $3.5-million. Costs so far this year have varied, but Mr. Roach expects Yangarra to "use learnings from prior wells to keep costs in check." For now, he has left his price target at $4 and his rating at "speculative buy."

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