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To: Scott Lerner who wrote (3905)1/7/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: Robert Utne  Respond to of 6570
 
Scott, You got it. Thus is not just an issue of what goes in the living room but what happens to the entire growth of the Home PC and the CE industries over the next ten years.

My read is that PC prices are dropping to TV-price levels. Just saw in todays WSJ that Compaq is directly selling fully-loaded PCs at a little over $500. Soon, everyone in the family will have their own PC just like they have their own TV. Then what?

The big bucks will go to home theater equipment, cutting Silicion Valley off at the pass. Large screens of 60" or more, expensive audio equipment, satellite dishes or cable modems, all linked to a Zenith STB or self-contained HDTV set.

This very real possibility is scaring the shit out of Gates. How can he keep those 40% growth figures when nobody wants to upgrade to his latest "convergence" pitch. He is lying awake at nights trying to throw every possible monkey wrench into HDTV implementation plans. Can't figure why CEMA is featuring Bill at the CES, unless his reach covers them, too.

1998 to 2001 will be when HDTV takes off. Convergence won't make a dent until 2002. Why confuse the consumer with multiple digital model offerings? It will only confuse/scare off the consumer much like the Divx announcement is doing to DVD.

Scott, Our day HAS come! Now, if the true story will just get out. Changed my flight (didn't want to miss the Heat kick the Bull's ass) so I'll be in Vegas tomorrow afternoon. See you and, hopefully, other "Zeites" there.