To: steve susko who wrote (16173 ) 1/7/1998 11:04:00 PM From: IQBAL LATIF Respond to of 50167
The Scoop =============================== By Wayne Rash, InternetWeek For some people and some companies, 1998 is going to be a really bad year. For others, it's going to be an absolutely awful year. For a few, it might be the last year ever. Bill Gates, for example, is going to have a tough time this year once the Justice Department gets rolling on its antitrust case. When Justice hired New York attorney David Boies last month, it put Microsoft on notice that the government has two specific goals: to take this case to trial, and to win. Boies, it seems, is one of the best litigators in the United States-perhaps the best, depending on whom you ask. Hiring him, instead of using a staff attorney, is akin to telling Iraq that the next time Saddam gets out of line, you plan to use nuclear weapons. What's worse is that Microsoft is largely responsible for its own problems. And it'll continue to get worse in 1998. There are no indications that Gates is likely to make any effort to improve his image in Washington, or that his lobbying staff will grow larger than its current four people, or that Microsoft will stop shooting itself in the foot through actions such as producing a nonfunctional version of Windows 95 in response to a court order to unbundle Internet Explorer. If Microsoft were the only company due for problems, this wouldn't be a generally bad year. The problem is, it's not. For the reason, look at Asia. The Asian currency and financial implosion, and subsequent governmental failures, will continue to play out until things hit a point low enough that the governments and companies involved will finally pay for their past extravagance. Although this is positive over the long run, at least if you believe in a market economy, in the short run it's going to be really hard on the high-tech industry in the United States. The reason it'll be tough is that the communications industry was counting on the rapidly growing markets in Asia for significant revenue in '98. The markets have largely disappeared. Adding to the problems, Asian products, thanks to the devaluation of Asian currencies, will get less expensive. Makers of U.S. products, especially those with lots of Asian competition, will have to compete in a very unfavorable market. Meanwhile, there will be plenty of homegrown things to worry about. For example, how likely is it that Apple Computer will continue to exist in its current form by this time next year-especially with Steve Jobs running things? I could go on, but you get the drift. Although there will be lots of cool products to test and interesting trends to spot, it'll be at least as interesting to see who gets a massive headache this year and what the corporate version of aspirin turns out to be. Wayne Rash is senior technology editor at InternetWeek. He can be reached at wrash@cmp.com or wrash@mindspring.com. === Internet News =========================== --- Europeans To Refine High-Speed Internet Technology --- LONDON -- Three major networking product developers are collaborating on a European Union-funded project aimed at producing a high-speed Internet using existing networking technologies.techweb.com --- Special Master Lessig Not Stepping Down --- Special Master Lawrence Lessig, the Harvard law professor at the center of the latest controversy between Microsoft and the U.S. Department of Justice, is refusing to back down.techweb.com === Features ================================== --- Steve Jobs On Apple --- Apple czar Steve Jobs talks up his company's earnings, but dodges questions about the CEO search. techweb.com --- Langa Letters --- Fred eats crow? Our new columnist, Fred Langa, dug up his predictions from a year ago: See how clear -- or cloudy -- his crystal ball was. Share your thoughts on Fred's predictions in our discussion area. cmpnet.com === Notably Quotable ======================= "My belief is that Steve will stay on as interim CEO until we find a world-class CEO. It would be a big mistake for Apple to lower its standards." - Fred Anderson, Apple CFO techweb.com