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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (22315)	6/21/2017 3:56:50 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 356093

I didn't suggest you would actually understand any of it. I thought you might be able to read the abstracts, though. The statistics used in climate science modeling and analysis are econometric methods. Duh. A lot of econometricians are doing more work in climate science than in economics. I thought you would have known that. If you understood econometric models you would likely have a little more insight into the realities of climate science. It might be worth taking a university course if you already have the linear algebra in your background.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (22315)	6/21/2017 7:44:45 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 356093

Rat, could you provide your simplified interpretation of this abstract, please? Thx. Article tools Rights & permissions Article metrics Abstract Abstract• References• Author information• Supplementary information In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.