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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (22354)	6/22/2017 1:01:33 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 356389

"it shows -- if correct -- that the claims about the pause by the Warmist community are wrong" No, it doesn't. from No hiatus (or vacation) from denial - Anthony Watts and Ryan Maue misrepresent a new scientific paper In no way does paper cast doubt on models. Instead it shows the importance of nailing down the forcings, the most important being GHGs. — Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) June 20, 2017 Figure 2 \| Annual global mean surface temperature, 1987 to 2016. The red line is a loess smooth to highlight the trend. The black line shows the misleading cherry pick pushed by science disinformers. Data source: GISS NASA Only by cherry picking data and drawing a straight line from 1998, when there was an unusually hot El Nino year, to 2012, and ignoring the years before, after, and in between, could one find a flat line = "When the ENTIRE PREMISE is based on models," The entire premise is based on the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas (Foote,1856;Tyndall, 1859), and changing its concentration in the atmosphere will change global temperatures, so that "temperature change = alpha ln(final CO2/original CO2)". Arrhenius worked it all out about 120 years ago. He said doubling would give a 1.5-4.5 degree increase; most recent IPCC said ""there is high confidence that ECS is extremely unlikely less than 1°C and medium confidence that the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C and very unlikely greater than 6°C." He also said "If the quantity of carbonic acid [ CO2 + H2O ? H2CO3 (carbonic acid) ] in the air should sink to one-half its present percentage, the temperature would fall by about 4°; a diminution to one-quarter would reduce the temperature by 8°", but we're not gonna be able to perform that experiment.