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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (76063)	6/26/2017 3:46:17 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Recommended By Sam The Ox Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95652

Great article, a lot of good points made therein including the thought: how "This Time Is Different" is noteworthy. The DRAM market is strong despite the fact that demand from PCs and smartphones is tepid. The "semi market sector" is breaking out from several ups and downs since the SOX index was formed back in 1994 as shown in the chart. Looking at the early days, there were "cycles" spaced rather close together. Those were the heady days of the PC beginning going into the dot.com bubble of 2000. Coming off that peak, there were many up and down cycles into 2012, a period of 10 to 12 years. From 2012 to now, a period of nearly 5 years, the up cycle has had only 1 down period of about a year in 2015. The slope of the uptrend recently has been higher than the uptrend from 2012 to 2015. IMO, this recent uptrend move is due to the "breakout" of the semi sector dependent on PCs and Smartphones to the IoT, as described so well in the article you posted. We will have a down cycle at some point, but these pauses in growth of the semi sector should be milder than in the past due to the many expanding markets ahead now and in the future. The insert in the overall SOX Chart shows the MU performance over the years from 2013 to now. MU began its uptrend in 2013 and peaked just before the SOX hit a peak in early 2015. From 35 a share it went down to 10 a share and now it is up over 30 a share again. This latest recovery effort started almost exactly where the SOX recovery started at the beginning of 2016. This latest uptrend is now about 18 months long with a very steep slope. Many analysts are getting very nervous and say now is the time "to get out". Maybe so, but there is always the possibility "This Time Is Different". If the economy holds up and continues to improve, the semi sector should be just fine and continue to rise in revenue and profits.