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To: John Pitera who wrote (5220)

6/27/2017 12:25:44 PM

From: The Ox

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8239

Thanks, JP.

The Auto Parts companies looked way overdone back then and I'd say that you hit the nail on the head at the time! I believe my mentioning of SAM as another solid short candidate encouraged you to mention your short "favorites" at that time. I've put TAP on the reversal watch recently but I could just have easily put SAM on it.

Message 30204482

Patience is often a key element in waiting for a reversal. Not always, if the timing of putting them on the list coincides with the market waking up to the possibility that the issue is actually oversold and simply in an overextended momentum move.

For the past few months, if not longer, I've been trying to put larger companies on the list vs. many of the micro caps I used to track. The data in the "Removed from Reversal Watch" portfolio is based on the lows that were hit while the issue was on the watch. Keeping in mind that it's nearly impossible to purchase at the actual low of these moves, the rebound % shows the maximum possible gain, so take it with a grain of salt, so to speak.

I'll put AZO on the reversal watch list as a proxy for this group. It's fallen far enough to start tracking (based solely on the chart view). I haven't look at fundies in these companies in many moons, so it may have a lot farther to fall if the underlying financial data doesn't support the shares at this price.

To: John Pitera who wrote (5220)

6/27/2017 12:39:05 PM

From: The Ox

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
John Pitera

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8239

I took a quick glance down memory lane and found this, another spectacular call you made in 2015:

AMBA is my pick of the week for a stock that can be shorted at a potential double top at 128 in June and 129 on Thurs and closing at 124 and change...... one can put a very tight stop at 132.75 or 135.55 and sell on Monday looking for decline to the 100 area at a minimum but I really expect it to go back to it's mid 70's level and the 200 dma.

Here's my follow up note a few weeks later:

From: The Ox 9/29/2015 1:31:40 PM
To: John P who wrote (17182) Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19470

AMBA finally back to where one MIGHT call it in line with it's fundamental growth. 15 PE times forward earnings expectations of $3.60 next year gives a $54 price target or $46 on 15x trailing earnings.