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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Ox who wrote (19471)6/27/2017 1:02:05 PM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation

Recommended By
mary-ally-smith

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
I wrote this at the end of May, fwiw:

While many are concerned about potential flash crashes and the like, most of the overall data doesn't suggest this is likely in the very short term. VXX is continuing to do it's normal dance and that is one of my main indicators (but not in a vacuum). Current VXX target is between $12.08 (25%) and 12.88 (20%) fwiw... (80 cents is roughly 5% +/- off the most recent pop to 16.10 -- the close on May 17th). VXX has been making moves that "generally" drop 20-25% before there's a short term rebound.
VXX hit $12.19 this morning.....might be time for another run? No reason SPY has to break down here, that's for sure!!




To: The Ox who wrote (19471)6/27/2017 3:33:30 PM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation

Recommended By
The Ox

  Respond to of 33421
 
Hi OX, the NDX and the SMH has been the leader of this bull market for a long time... They have had the strongest trend and have led the markets since last fall.

It's worthwhile to pay attention to when they are having a bigger correction as if the market does not rotate
it's leadership.... It will pull back more... which as you suggest would be healthy.

the NDX daily.... shorter term... action is acting corrective since June 9th top.
The NDX corrected to it's .618 retracement with a quick think failed price probe up to the .764
retracenent are.... This morning the NDX is below the .50 retracement of the most recent decline from 6/9/17 down to 5641.25 level on 6/15/17.

as you point out with the SPX action of rising early in the day and then weakening.... is distributive action.
I have heard whispers from some of the older sages ... who comment they see larger time frame
distributive action in the stockmarket .... That takes multi-months to be done properly.

I think we have to wait and watch what happens as we get into September and see how we are set
at that time.... presumably overall higher into that August 21st... to early September period.

The theme this of the past 10 months has been to become an index investor and be over allocated to
Stocks.

Senate majority leader McConnell cancels vote on a healthcare bill, It's July 4th weekend coming up and
it appears that a healthcare bill, tax reform.... are getting further out of reach.



The FANG, AAPL, SMH, NVDA, AMD are showing some corrective action still...

TSLA had taken the mantle as the strongest stock.. it's even showing some vulnerability

Message 31152460

The sector that is now the strongest is the healthcare .. The XLV ETF is super diverse.

even the XLV had an outside day on June 22 and is weakening. leadership has largely collapsed for the time being.



Message 31157461

GOOGL is fined.... AMZN has a fair amount of anti-trust... and also it has stirred fears of technology replacing jobs. FB is being cited by Roger MaNamee for being anti competitive.

Roger MaNamee who is a long time VC legend was on Cnbc today commenting that Google and Facebook are super monopolies on the scale of Standard Oil -- only now the scale is global..

Google shareholders won't be phased by the EU's $2.7 billion fine against the company for competition abuses related to its shopping business, Elevation Partners co-founder Roger McNamee told CNBC on Tuesday.

"As a shareholder of Google you're looking at this and saying: 'We won again,'" McNamee said.

The venture capitalist spoke hours after EU regulators fined Google a record 2.4 billion euros ($2.7 billion), ruling that the search-engine giant violated antitrust rules for its online shopping practices.

Google said it will consider appealing the decision to the highest court in Europe.

"Google, Facebook, Amazon are increasingly just super-monopolies, especially Google and Facebook. The share of the markets they operate in is literally on the same scale that Standard Oil had ... more than 100 years ago — with the big differences that their reach is now global, not just within a single country," he said on " Squawk Alley."

The fine is not large enough to change Google's behavior, he added. "The only thing that will change it is regulations that actually say you can or can't do something."

McNamee said Google's business model isn't structured in a way that allows for competition. "The way that Google's product works makes its anti-competitive behavior much more obvious — but do not underestimate how powerful Facebook's monopoly has been to boosting Instagram and WhatsApp," he said.

The competition issue with the big tech companies extends beyond the EU into the U.S., he said. "They do stifle innovation. They stifle entrepreneurship. ... You can see this even in Silicon Valley it's very hard for any of the unicorn generation of companies to actually reach successful critical mass because, you know, one of their competitors gets acquired by Google and Facebook and then the category is over," said McNamee.

"I think it's a big policy question the world is going to have to deal with over the next few years," he said.

Google, Facebook and Amazon did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.


cnbc.com

it's fascinating as this talk becomes more pervasive and widespread...

John