Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (76160)	7/1/2017 4:12:40 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Respond to of 95625

Here is the updated table of SOXM estimated earnings and PEs sorted by Next Year PE values. Both MU and COHU were down -6.0% this week. This brought the COHU PE to less than 10. INTC is in 3rd place with a PE of 11.4. AMAT and LRCX are next to each other.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (76160)	7/1/2017 7:10:19 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Return to Sender Respond to of 95625

I think I picked Micron and Cree, based mainly on them being bottom of the barrel at the time. One is strongly up now, the other not so much.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (76160)	7/3/2017 10:47:03 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Respond to of 95625

Excellent table. LRCX is in 3rd place with a Next Year earnings estimate of 10.84 and the price closed at 141.43 giving a PE of 13.0. Its growth rate is estimated at 24 which gives a quite low PEG of 0.54. Nice numbers. INTC is 3rd from the bottom, down -7.0%. Maybe they are going out of business or just an "old" company with no pizzazz? AMAT and LRCX have nearly equal estimated PEs and growth rates. I own and trade all three. AMAT and LRCX have done so well all I seem to do lately is take profits but they could be low enough for aggressive buyers to step in soon. Intel I also took profits in twice and it is now close to where I'd buy back shares.... I track all closely and I believe the earnings growth numbers for AMAT and LRCX are much higher than just a year ago... that sort of bullish exuberance historically comes at tops and this market has been so good for so long... I'm hesitant to get very aggressive putting tons of profits taken back in too quickly, a mistake I sometimes make so nowadays I try to be less aggressive and have patience. I'm not sure if you've kept the data in spreadsheet form, but it would be interesting to see the difference in 5 year forward growth estimates for December 2008, March 2009, today and a few data points in between such as the peaks and valleys on my LRCX chart (March 2011, Sept 2012, Dec 2015, Feb 2016 perhaps?) I have the data in old newsletters but memory says analysts are most optimistic at tops and most pessimistic at bottoms for the future...

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (76160)	7/3/2017 10:58:28 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95625

More on growth rates: I'm not sure if you've kept the data in spreadsheet form, but it would be interesting to see the difference in 5 year forward growth estimates for December 2008, March 2009, today and a few data points in between such as the peaks and valleys on my LRCX chart (March 2011, Sept 2012, Dec 2015, Feb 2016 perhaps?) I have the data in old newsletters but memory says analysts are most optimistic at tops and most pessimistic at bottoms for the future... Yeah, check this out.... 5 yr growth estimates just before I bought shares again at $65 near the lows of 2016 where over 50% lower at only 11.3% (still good growth): . and Lam today... with 24% 5-yr growth rate: