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To: lorne who wrote (5375)	1/7/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116788

Lorne, yes, absolutely. I'm no expert but what you said follows. Right now countries from Europe to Asia are selling everything BUT dollars--inlcuding and esp. gold--to support their currencies, reduce their deficits, pay foreign debts, whatever. This choice is largely political. But a bankrupt ultimately has no choice as to what assets to liquidate. There are lots more dollars and dollar denominatd asets to sell than there is gold. And so dollars will be sold. Of course, this is ultimately good for gold, but I don't know how long it will take. Also, weak currencies have a tendancy of spreading. The U.S. wishes it can isolate itself, but it ultimatley cannot. If trade were the only issue, I'd say that the U.S. would gladly sacrifice its workers to cheaper goods and labor from abroad for the sake of a strong dollar. But the international banking and payment system (and even corporate profits) are another matter. The problem is that everyone owes everyone else in their respective currencies, so everyone (and evry currency) ultimately has to take a hit, one way or another

To: lorne who wrote (5375)	1/7/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: lorne	Respond to of 116788

ECONOMIC TURMOIL Thursday,January 8,1998 Chaos feared as migrant millions face expulsion By NICHOLAS CUMMING-BRUCE in Bangkok South-East Asia's economic crisis threatens a new wave of victims as the governments of its battered tiger economies plan to expel millions of foreign migrant workers. Thailand and Malaysia aim to throw out at least 2.5 million labourers, while South Korea is likely to send back all its 270,000 guest workers. The forced repatriation will cause new hardship for some of Asia's poorest countries, as well as threatening widespread political instability. It represents a double blow, halting the flow of foreign earnings on which poor countries such as Indonesia, Burma and Bangladesh have relied heavily, and adding millions to the jobless total. Thailand will force tens of thousands of workers across the border into Burma, one of the world's most backward economies, crippled by decades of mismanagement and conflict, and also suffering from the impact of the region's currency crisis. Returnees will include many from ethnic minorities who fled bloody campaigns by the ruling military junta, which emptied entire villages, slaughtered livestock and forcibly relocated their populations to poorly prepared but easily controlled locations in an attempt to eradicate resistance by autonomy-seeking rebels. The repercussions of Malaysia's move could prove even more drastic. Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is already struggling to cope with 2.5 million people whom business leaders and military chiefs say have lost their jobs. And that is just the start. "This crisis is still in its early stage," said a political analyst, Dewi Fortuna Anwar. Last year, Indonesia was forced to take back thousands of workers from Saudia Arabia who had overstayed their permits. The much bigger repatriations, which loom if Malaysia goes ahead with its plans, would come as Indonesia grapples with the impact of severe drought as well as the regional economic crisis. Mass repatriations will add another potentially destabilising ingredient to the volatile political equation. A Thai minister said this week that the Government intended to repatriate between 300,000 and 500,000 foreign labourers every year for the next three years. The Government believes their departure will free work for the 2 million Thais expected to be made jobless by Thailand's giddy slide from boom to bust. Authorities have only a rough estimate of the number of foreigners who have found jobs in Thailand, mostly in construction and factories, and most of them illegally, but aim to solve the problem by fining and jailing employers who defy expulsion notices. "We are confident, with the drastic action, within three years all foreign workers can be repatriated," said the Labour Minister, Trairong Suwannakhiri. Another million foreigners - roughly half of Malaysia's immigrant workforce - are likely to be repatriated, according to the Deputy Home Affairs Minister, Tajol Rosli Ghazali, who estimates that 800,000 of them are illegal entrants. Malaysia halted recruitment of foreign workers in August. Even the Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who had been stubbornly chasing grand schemes to industrialise the country, has now agreed to impose an austerity plan that is already costing jobs.