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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1023800)	7/6/2017 11:46:28 AM
From: Bonefish	1 Recommendation Recommended By FJB Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571928

7000 ppm CO2 during the Cambrian period. 400 ppm now in northern hemisphere. Plants loved it.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1023800)	8/24/2017 2:37:33 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571928

No, I don't think it is. But the idea is stupid. Her point was that the statistics are "so good" now and probabilities are so well-established that she can now "attribute" specific events to climate change, i.e., say, "This would not have happened but for climate change." While you can attribute it all you want to, it would not be correct to do that. She gave an example of some event where the probability of the event happening without climate change was 1 in 175, hence, she could say it would not have occurred without climate change. This is not how statistics work. First, you have to be able to establish how much confidence you have in the 1 in 175, and that isn't trivial and involves lots of assumptions. Secondly, the entire point of 1 in 175 says there is at least some chance that attribution would be incorrect. And it doesn't take into account, at all, the poor quality of data and models on which the statistics are based. There is no climate model in existence good enough today to make attribution of a major weather event. Just given that weather prediction 10 days down the road is not that good at this point, longer-term events are no better than guesses.