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Strategies & Market Trends : Neural Nets - A tool for the 90's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CatLady who wrote (40)	1/8/1998 6:58:00 AM
From: Optim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 871

>I'm still confused on the influence period though. It almost >seems like it might be a 'weighting' parameter. In a sense I think it is. I think of it as just the number of inputs you give to the model. For example, if you say a 20 day short-term influence, it would use yesterday's data, two days ago, etc., until it gets to the 20 day mark. The more a model can see, hopefully the more accurate it gets. This isn't always the case though. Neural nets are part science, part art, and part luck in my opinion. >I've only been running NS since the weekend, but so far it's give >two timely sell signals and one bad hold (ie. should've sold). You have to remember that NS will never work 100%. In the long run however, it should pay off. You may also want to 'paper trade' a system for a few months first, to make sure it works. And by creating multiple nets on the same stock and then using a consensus view of the recommendations, you better your odds. Try using different periods, influence settings, related stocks, etc. The more diverse the inputs, the better the chances of a good outcome. Optim