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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Darth Trader who wrote (32448)	1/8/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: Muizz M. Kheraj	Respond to of 58727

DT, Japan up ... but Hong Kong down BIG...and Korea up...who's to say how this market will react...

To: Darth Trader who wrote (32448)	1/8/1998 8:20:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Darth.. Japan fell back, Indonesia down .12%, Singapore down 7%, pretty bad Asian performance. Here's todays overview of the battle in the US market. On any normal day, we'd be down, but this isn't a normal day. Its the fifth day in the proverbial first five days of the new year. To those who butter their toast with superstition (... you'd be surprized how many who trade do), there's enough motivation in this coincidence to make a gallant effort at turning today's trading positive. Dallas Semi reports tomorrow, INTC on the 13th, APPLE already reported its turnaround quarter and SGAT reported yesterday that its well behind analyst estimates. This is a real hodgepodge, nuetral to down. The oils got upgraded on value (always a surprizing reason!), especially the oil service and drillers which are making so much money that some are asking if there isn't room to renegociate contracts and prices given crude has declined and looks to be in plentiful supply. Banks have been hurt on two fronts, one overseas losses from currency risks, the other from the fact that we've hit all time long bond lows.. traders are asking "..perhaps rates can only go flat to up?" which increases pressure on bank earnings. I think rates can go lower but the 5.75% area needs to be backfilled and topfilled first to assure people like Jimmy Rogers that there is a Santa Claus at the Fed. At some point, the flight to quality argument (money coming to the US because its at risk overseas), will turn its other side. We are a production and financially integrated global community. While the US is riding a very healthy home front of lowered federal debt, low interest rates and general prosperity, we do a significant amount of trade overseas in order to support this lifestyle. At some point either we will find "their" markets very attractive having fallen excessively allowing money to exit, OR "our" markets will have to adjust down to reflect the greater risk that's been put here from the tidal wave of money overvaluing our equities. This would fulfill the necessity to deflate the inflation in equities. The third alternative, which hopefully can be walked, is that a level to slightly up market continues here while overseas markets make a turnaround on more solid ground. Meanwhile, with rates so low, and a lot of real estate being rolled over to take advantage of lower rates, there's bound to be good consumer activity especially to currency discounted imports. Jim