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To: Brumar89 who wrote (78296)7/13/2017 1:12:03 PM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 86356
 
Oil Discoveries Suggest Mexico’s Bet to Open Energy Sector Is Paying Off

By STANLEY REEDJULY 12, 2017



A deep-water oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. CreditHenry Romero/Reuters When Mexico gambled on ending decades of state control of its energy industry, officials said they hoped the move would promote investment and give the country access to technical expertise. That wager now appears to be paying off.

The government began auctioning off rights two years ago to drill in parts of the Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, an international consortium of energy companies said they had discovered a large oil field, and another firm said it had discovered more oil than expected in a separate area.

The overhaul of the Mexican oil and gas sector in recent years eventually ended the state energy company’s seven-decade domestic monopoly on exploration and production. The aim was to arrest years of declining oil output, blamed on a slow-moving public sector that lacked the technology to exploit opportunities in deep-sea drilling, or shale oil and gas.

The two announcements on Tuesday appeared to suggest that Mexico’s strategy, which was met with criticism when it was first pushed through, was succeeding.

The consortium, made up of Premier Oil of Britain, as well as Talos Energy of Texas and the Mexican company Sierra Oil and Gas, said that it had discovered a field containing more than one billion barrels of oil in shallow water 40 miles off the Mexican coast. Riverstone Holdings, an American private equity firm that specializes in energy investments, owns 45 percent of Talos Energy and 43 percent of Sierra Oil and Gas.

“This is the most important achievement” so far in Mexico’s overhaul, said Pablo Medina, a Houston-based analyst at the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

The companies won the rights to drill in the zone in 2015, during Mexico’s first auction of exploration rights.

In an interview, Alfredo A. Marti, a former BP executive who is now a Riverstone managing director, said that high-tech data processing indicated that the Mexican government’s estimates for the amount of oil in the field might have been too low.

But after drilling, he said, “we found that even our bullish expectations were conservative, and we have something much more interesting.”

Because of Mexico’s rich resources and proximity to the United States, Mr. Marti continued, “we think that over the next few decades, Mexico is going to be a very important source of growth in the oil and gas sector.”

Also on Tuesday, Eni, an Italian oil company, said a well recently drilled to test a previously announced discovery had shown that the trove also held more than one billion barrels of oil — much more than previously thought.
Eni’s chief executive, Claudio Descalzi, said in an interview that the oil would be cheap and easy to produce because it was in shallow water only a few miles from shore. He added that his company, which won the rights to explore the field in 2015, would keep drilling in the area and that the size of the find might grow.

“I imagine that after these big discoveries, the appetite of other companies will increase,” he said.

Oil companies have long eyed Mexico for exploration and production of energy, banking on the rich geology that has produced so much oil and gas in American waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

“Geologically it is part of the same big basin,” Tony Durrant, Premier’s chief executive, said in an interview.

Mr. Durrant said that while the American side was “completely pockmarked” with oil wells, the Mexican side was not as heavily drilled because the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, had long been the “only game in town.”

Last year, Mexico’s oil production averaged 2.5 million barrels per day, making it a midsize producer, comparable with Brazil or Venezuela. But output has been declining, and last year’s figure was more than a million barrels per day fewer than it was a decade earlier.

Those poor levels of production compelled the government to take on nationalist pressures and to bring in competitors to try to turn around one of the country’s most important industries.

But the timing of the overhaul coincided with a sharp fall in oil prices, which had been at more than $100 a barrel but are at about $48 a barrel now.

With companies chopping exploration budgets, interest in Mexico’s early auctions was muted, allowing companies like Eni and the consortium including Premier to pick up what are turning out to be gems.

Now, most major oil companies have acquired positions in Mexico. “After this discovery, it is going to be quite hot,” Mr. Durrant said.

nytimes.com



To: Brumar89 who wrote (78296)7/14/2017 8:49:37 AM
From: Eric  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86356
 
Big Oil Just Woke Up to Threat of Rising Electric Car Demand

By
Jess Shankleman

July 14, 2017, 1:00 AM PDT July 14, 2017, 2:40 AM PDT

OPEC quintupled forecast for battery powered cars in last year

Oil majors and automakers diverge on outlook for EVs


The world’s biggest oil producers are starting to take electric vehicles seriously as a long-term threat.

OPEC quintupled its forecast for sales of plug-in EVs, and oil producers from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc also revised up their outlooks in the past year, according to a study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance released on Friday. The London-based researcher expects those cars to reduce oil demand 8 million barrels by 2040, more than the current combined production of Iran and Iraq.

Growing popularity of EVs increases the risk that oil demand will stagnate in the decades ahead, raising questions about the more than $700 billion a year that’s flowing into fossil-fuel industries. While the oil producers’ outlook isn’t nearly as aggressive as BNEF’s, the numbers indicate an acceleration in the number of EVs likely to be in the global fleet.

To see BNEF’s report comparing long-term EV adoption forecasts, click here.

“The number of EVs on the road will have major implications for automakers, oil companies, electric utilities and others,” Colin McKerracher, head of advanced-transport analysis at BNEF in London, wrote in a note to clients. “There is significant disagreement on how fast adoption will be, and views are changing quickly.”



BNEF expects electric cars to outsell gasoline and diesel models by 2040, reflecting a rapid decline in the cost of lithium-ion battery units that store power for the vehicles. It expects 530 million plug-in cars on the road by 2040, a third of worldwide total number of cars.

For a story on BNEF’s electric car forecasts for 2040, click here.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its 2040 EV fleet prediction to 266 million from the 46 million it anticipated a year ago. Battery cars under the new projection account for 12 percent of the market within 23 years, compared to 2 percent in the 2015 forecast. Based in Vienna, the group representing 14 nations expects half the number diesel vehicles as it did a year ago.

Others making similar expectations according to the BNEF note include:
  • The International Energy Agency more than doubled its central forecast for EVs, raising its 2030 EV fleet size estimate from to 58 million from 23 million.
  • Exxon Mobil boosted its 2040 estimate to about 100 million from 65 million.
  • BP anticipates 100 million EVs on the road by 2035, a 40 percent increase in its outlook compared with a year ago.
  • Statoil ASA, the Norwegian state oil company, says EVs will account for a 30 percent of new sales by 2030.
Just a fraction of the world’s cars sold today are powered by batteries instead of gasoline. Many analysts increasingly say the market will expand rapidly as almost all major auto makers bring dozens of new EV models to market. OPEC said in its oil market report on Wednesday that electric vehicle sale targets could dampen demand in some parts of Asia as soon as 2018.

Long-term growth depends on a wide range of factors, including policy decisions by governments seeking to tackle air pollution to the cost of the lithium-ion batteries that account for about a third of the cost of each one.

Yet even as oil majors lift their outlook, they remain much less optimistic than the automakers. The world’s top automakers have a combined plan to sell 6 million EVs a year by 2025, rising to 8 million in 2030, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Some big companies plan to go all electric. Volvo AB expects to have an electric motor in every car by 2019. It joins Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. as a major EV maker and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., the Hong Kong-based maker of London’s black cabs, which is re-branding itself to focus on EVs.

“What oil companies and car companies are saying is diverging,” said McKerracher, the BNEF analyst. “This is a trillion dollar question, and somebody is going to be wrong.”

bloomberg.com



To: Brumar89 who wrote (78296)7/14/2017 9:34:09 AM
From: Eric  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86356
 
Electric, hybrid and low-emission cars

Electric cars to account for all new vehicle sales in Europe by 2035


Falling battery costs to drive sales but European carmakers will lose out to rivals in the US and Asia, forecasts Dutch bank


An electric vehicle on charge on a London street. Photograph: Miles Willis/Getty Images for Go Ultra Low

Adam Vaughan

@adamvaughan_uk

Thursday 13 July 2017 12.33 BST Last modified on Thursday 13 July 2017 22.00 BST


All new cars sold in Europe will be electric within less than two decades, driven by government support, falling battery costs and economies of scale, a Dutch bank has predicted.

However, ING warned that with battery-powered vehicles accounting for 100% of registrations in 2035 across the continent, European carmakers would lose out to their rivals in the US and Asia who already lead on battery production.

The forecast is much more aggressive than most other projections, such as the UK’s National Grid which on Thursday said it expects 90% of new cars in Britain to be electric by 2050.

France’s commitment last week to banning new petrol and diesel car sales by 2040 suggests it also thinks the roll-out of electric vehicles will be slower than ING’s report expects.

However, the bank said that it believed pure electric cars would “become the rational choice for motorists in Europe” sometime between 2017 and 2024, as their car showroom prices fall, their ranges increase and charging infrastructure becomes more widespread.

By 2024, the report’s authors forecast that in Germany the cost of ownership for an electric car – including buying and fuelling it – would be the same as a conventional petrol or diesel model.

The bank said the shift to electric will be underpinned by falling battery costs.

Motorists’ concerns over “range anxiety” will also evaporate in the 2020s, ING said, as the distance between charges goes from the 100-150 miles of most models today to 400 miles and above in the next decade.

Eventually, by the end of the next decade, carmakers will begin focusing solely on electric models, the report said. Swedish firm Volvo recently marked the beginning of this trend, saying it would only launch hybrid, plug-in hybrid or 100% electric cars from 2019.

ING expects battery-powered cars will beat hydrogen versions on both price and infrastructure. However, the bank said that European carmakers were likely to miss out in the coming electric revolution, because Asian and American competitors had the advantage in battery technology and electric motors. “Europe’s competitive advantage in internal combustion engine powertrains disappears with the shift to battery electric vehicles,” the report said.

Tony Seba, an economist at Stanford University in the US who has published research on the cars, said: “Our findings clearly indicate that essentially all vehicle miles travelled will be electric by 2040 [worldwide].

“The car industry faces an imminent technology disruption by AEVs [autonomous electric vehicles] in the early 2020s. Even without autonomous technology, the internal combustion engine car industry will have been long decimated by 2040.”

The flurry of electric car announcements last week, including Volvo’s electrification strategy, prompted a pushback by big oil and some analysts.

At an energy conference in Istanbul this week, Anglo-Dutch firm Shell, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company and the International Energy Agency dismissed the idea that electric vehicles will hurt oil demand.

On Thursday, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2017 to 98m barrels a day, with growth revised up 0.1mb/d on its projection last month, to 1.4mb/d.

theguardian.com