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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clam Clam who wrote (253)	1/8/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: charger	Respond to of 3299

Thanks for the heads up...AFCI got rocked today, and I had a feeling that was the reason. One should definitely be cautious near term. Two days ago this looked like it had legs...now I'm not so sure. Even so, there was a pattern of small potatoes selling and large block buys throughout the day. Regards

To: Clam Clam who wrote (253)	1/8/1998 2:53:00 AM
From: Milkman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

Clam, I think we all appreciate the heads up on TLDCF. There are some similarities with equipment but as you point out they do not have a US market. Part of the reduced 1998 is the Asian market and a big part is the expense for Marketing and R&D to get into the US market. I really hope for their sake that they started their R&D in 1997 because it will take most of 8 months to a year to get the features needed to even start competing in the US. The big TLDCF drop today and the revised estimate from 50 to 13 are very reasonable. I have always taken anal-ist's price estimates tounge in cheek. For AFCI I would also expect that, even with the majority of their market in the US, a slight miss on estimates for a quarter could take it down 4-5 points depending on other outside influences. Company earnings in this market are hypersensitive especially for volitile stocks like AFCI, even if you miss by just a little you get whacked. Your statements about the bare bones design fitting emerging markets I agree with. What bothers me is the statement that "The bulls on the stock say even in a bad economy, a phone is a basic infrastructure item whose growth will not be hampered (i.e. not a discretionary expense)." For emerging countries I contend it is a big discretionary expense. The majority of chinese people are either farmers or sweatshop workers in the cities. Neither one makes enough money to even think about afording a phone. Beside, who would they call? Entry point is a mute point for me at this point. Other than the earnings announcement, what more do you want to know? After they sign up another RBOC or several CLEC's it will be a bit late. Would you care to share with us what you are hearing about Q1??? Thanks for your input. Milkman