To: Profi who wrote (316 ) 1/9/1998 11:25:00 AM From: Ken Turetzky Respond to of 1166
RETAIL STOCK OUTLOOK: Continue To Recommend Overweighting Retail Sto 10:24am EST 9-Jan-98 DLJ Securities (Gary Balter) WMT KM HD LOW JCP COST S CC DLJ ****** DONALDSON, LUFKIN & JENRETTE ****** DLJ January 9, 1998 Gary Balter (212) 892-4228 Dana Eisman Cohen (212) 892-4250 Doug Donovan (212) 892-8906 Jeff McMahon (212) 892-2351 RETAIL STOCK OUTLOOK Continue To Recommend Overweighting Retail Stocks Solid December Sales Underlying Trends Remain Strong, Margins Solid (Part 3 of 7) VIEWPOINT WAL-MART (WMT: $39 5/16)# Rating: Market Performance EPS Estimates 1/97A 1/98E 1/99E P/E 1/98E 1/99E $1.33 $1.54 $1.75 25.5x 22.5x In December, Wal-mart's comp sales at the discount stores rose a solid 6.5% and Sam's Club's comps grew robustly 4.4%, both at the high end of plans. These were some of the best sales we have seen from WMT in some time, however they were a little more promotional than expectation because the sales came late. In addition, labor costs were higher because of the minimum wage increases effect on the seasonal help. This stock should continue to be a good stock as it represents the safety that investors are looking for as they search out retailers. Holiday sales were on the high end of expectations, but came in short and very intensive bursts. Specifically, Thanksgiving and the two days before Christmas were the strongest. Throughout the holiday season, Wal-Mart improved its in-stock position and merchandise presentation, while receiving some of the best customer service scores. The post-holiday sales were good. Inventory and sell-through improved year over year at both the discount stores and the clubs. By division, the discount stores started off with sales on the low end of plan for the first three weeks of the month and finished up at the high end of plan due to very strong Christmas and good post-holiday sales. Robust demand for seasonal, electronics, pets, books, and apparel drove revenues at the discount stores. The Clubs posted sales on the high end of expectations as office supplies, toys, books, and softgoods sold well. Membership renewal rates were strong, supporting the excellent value members associate with the clubs. Internationally, Canada and Puerto Rico came in on plan, while Mexico and Argentina were slightly below expectations. On December 30th, 1997, Wal- Mart completed the acquisition of the 21 store Wertkauf hypermarket chain ($1.4 billion in annual sales) in Germany. With robust holiday sales results, a good merchandise mix, and solid sell through of inventory, the fourth quarter outlook is positive. There has been some off-price promotional activity occurring in the sector, but it should not impact bottom line results, and management is comfortable with fourth quarter consensus estimates of around $0.55. January comps are expected to be in the mid-single digits at the discount stores and in the low single digits at Sam's.