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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thean who wrote (6986)	1/7/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean, post from PEngr - very bearish Subject: Re: the floor: Pengr Date: Tue, Jan 6, 1998 22:50 EST From: P Engr Message-id: <19980107035000.WAA19407@ladder01.news.aol.com> <<<BDI had a Pengr objective of 13 I believe, ITS THERE! GLM had 21, its 21.5 NBR had 24, its 26 DO had 39, its 43 CDG had 40, its 44+ PTEN had 23-6, its 29+ There were others, and maybe the above are no longer valid. Only Pengr knows. I would like to get a confirmation so I can enter orders. I did buy BDI. Its probably the one thats no longer valid.>>> Sorry for my absence from The Board, I've been out of town. I don't have the time to respond to all of the e-mail---very sorry to all that I have'nt responded to---at my present pace, I may not be able to repond to so many of you. My 12/19/97 post suggested buy points. I also stated my concern about the overall market (and again in the 12/30/97 post). This market looks very toppy. Several of the major averages along with 30-40% of the individual stocks (in most industrial sectors) have head-and- shoulders tops. In addition, so many others have long sinced topped out and have been in well defined downtrends for quite some time. The drillers had been the market leaders, with the techs in close second. My 11/5/97 "sell drillers" post observed the market weakness of the tech sector and it's breakdown as indicative to me that the drillers would probably soon follow. Today it's the financial sector breaking down---one by one the "bear" takes down nearly every sector. I think that there is a very good chance that we have entered into a bear market. If so, it will take no hostages. The best place to be is in CASH. I have moved to 100% cash position since 12/30/97 post and have shorted a few (in other industries)--- DELL, CPQ, TXN, CCI, BT, MER...and--MSFT (maybe too "bold with this one?) I think that "bargin hunting" in a bear market should be avoided. Remember "The trend is your friend". Only time will tell for sure where we are at---I think that confirmation of the bear will become obvious---if it is such. Look for example for the S&P 500 to take out it's neckline (around 900)---at that point (if it happens), look for a very sharp selloff-----down to the 650 area before any meaningful support. Be very cautious in this atmosphere-----my thoughts are that preservation of capital should be the #1 Goal in a bear market. One thing that the 1972-1974 bear market taught me, was that "bargins" end up becoming "no so good bargins" as the trend continuies. I am Sorry to be the bearer of grim news---- Yours Truly, P Engr.

To: Thean who wrote (6986)	1/7/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Respond to of 95453

[Off Topic] Thean, I understand your intent. But I feel there are better shorting candidates than CSCO, the bellweather of networking, which has less than 5% market exposure to SEA. Yes, I remember the many dips CSCO experienced over the years. But those dips are from a baseline that has a steep upward slope. CSCO's price trend is not your friend if you're short. It is like swimming against the tide. I see it as no different than shorting SLB or MSFT or GE. Surely short-money can be made on any of them, but at odds that are poorer than of making the same money being long. Tulvio