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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (59645)	7/23/2017 8:09:38 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

ADM & GIS are other food stocks on my list but will start positions on any correction/pull back. ADM is 1.8% undervalued according the GN valuation model w/ a fair value at $42.04/share. GIS not undervalue at all w/ a fair value of $22.91/share and the stock selling at $54.55/share. SENEA is the best I have seen so far on it's undervalue percentage at 54% undervalued. So market is really discounting their FCF and/or BV. FWIW BGS not undervalued at $37.25/share w/ a GN value at $24.10/share. The div looks quite good at 5% when I compare to my other div payers. I may need to widen my food processor/distributor stock candidate coverage. I have been accumulating FPI an AG land REIT that owns/rents AG land w/ various type of crops. This type of investment was not around 10 years ago so it allows you to get one notch closer to the farm. They still do not cover their 5% dividend but AFFO and FFO are trending higher. LAND (Gladstone Land Corp.) is another Farm Land REIT but I do not like the management which comes from the finance field. FPI has actual farm operators on the BOD. LAND also has a preferred LANDP ( Gladstone Land Corp., 6.375% Series A Cumulative Term Preferred Stock) is one I have been watching at/below PAR for the income portfolio. I think there is long term value in the food sector as we have been in a deflation cycle for years w/ multi year lows in crop prices. I am not sure if margins can expand up the processing chain unless there is a transition to robots. That's where I have been looking for value but still not many to choose from. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (59645)	9/20/2017 8:11:09 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By richardred Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78717

B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) - a 25% add to current position 6.2% div now at my Buy @ $29.55/share Seneca Foods Corporation (SENEA) - have 30% shares up for sale at/above $32/share I continue to build my AG/Food stocks. I am seeing value in these names based on FCF and forward PE's. More importantly I think food deflation may end as I am seeing first signs of AG input (UAN fertilizer) prices rising after hitting a two year bottom. If this is true for other AG products (ie canned & frozen foods), my premise is that retail prices may/could happen in next 8-12 months and efficient producers/manufactures/distributors may see expanding margins. The deep value play is SENEA which is 40% undervalued according to the Graham Number valuation model. It is +14% from your recent Buy that led me to this name. I basically did a pair trade of SENEA (the value Buy) and BGS (the turnaround FCF play). BGS now at multi year lows and SENEA moving higher off it's recent 52wk low. The idea is to peel off some shares of SENEA (very thinly traded) to Buy BGS as it sells at new lows. I still own Dean Foods (DF) but have not added from my original Buy. DF is only 3% undervalued according to the GN valuation model so will do another Buy at/below $9.25/share. I like their assets but milk/dairy is still in a food deflation environment. One can eat so much ice cream which is their only growing high margin division (represents about 15% of their business). SENEA may/could be a take over candidate just for their food processing assets. They also have a recent acquisition in frozen vegetables w/ the Jolly Green Giant partner/acquisition. Therefore, I really do not want to sell many of these shares when they are still so undervalued. As I book profits from other sectors, I may use those proceeds to build my AG/food stocks. I also like the farm/land REITs and ADM (waiting for a sell off on this one). After many years of holding fertilizer company shares UAN, stock +35% in the last few days on 15% increase in urea prices. At the peak of the UAN cycle, this was a $19/share stock and paid a 6% variable distribution. EKS