Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (19575)	7/24/2017 10:05:20 AM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Recommended By John Pitera Respond to of 33421

So much to consider based on the data presented. Commercial real estate (CRE), in particular, is an area of concern. The cost involved in refurbishing outdated CRE is substantial. Add in the pressure being put on tradition retail by online companies. Looking at data in many of the other areas discussed, we see plenty of similarities in the extremes seen in 2007 showing up in today's charts. Another area for concern. VIX is an interesting monster. Speculative accounts’ bets against VIX remain near record highs as volatility shorting gains popularity across funds and retail investors alike. It’s difficult to find a period in recent history (including during the bubble years) when equity investors were this complacent. The longer this plays out, the more retail and novice investors will see this as a win-win scenario. However, when it breaks, and eventually we'll see it break, it looks like it will be the coiled spring effect. The longer and lower it stays low, the more likely the rush to "get out of the trade" has the potential to create the "moonshot". Maybe it will even be a "Plutoshot"? Naturally, it can stay lower longer than many out there think, especially while the "healthy" commissions are being made putting more retail investors into these vehicles!!

To: John Pitera who wrote (19575)	7/24/2017 10:08:10 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

JP, At one point many months ago you had the EUR/USD targeting below $1. Is it accurate to assume that you've changed this view based on the chart reversal? TIA

To: John Pitera who wrote (19575)	7/24/2017 10:36:14 AM
From: Don Green	2 Recommendations Recommended By Hawkmoon The Ox Respond to of 33421

Protection Against a Dollar Plunge Is the Costliest Since 2009 Nervous currency traders are paying the most in eight years for insurance against a plunge in the dollar. With the Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday, traders in the $5.1-trillion-a-day currency market are paying the largest premium since October 2009 on options to protect against an extreme decline in the dollar against the euro over a six-month tenor. The measure, also known as a 10-delta risk reversal, is an indication of trader bias in the options market, which currently reflects strong bearish sentiment on the greenback. What’s more, investors are piling into options contracts in anticipation of big moves in the euro-dollar exchange rate, keeping an eye on whether the pair breaks above the key $1.1714 level, the high from August 2015. Traders bought more than $6 billion in options to sell dollars and buy euros on July 20 and 21, and an additional $3 billion to sell the greenback against the yen, according to Depository Trust Clearing Corp. data. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/protection-against-a-dollar-plunge-is-the-costliest-since-2009