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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (134733)

7/24/2017 1:34:45 PM

From: John Pitera

Respond to of 217754

Hi TJ, The USD has failed miserably at every rally attempt this year.

back In Jan and Feb, DJT was adamant that he wanted to see a lower USD and that is exactly what he has gotten.

The 45 year Monthly USD index with Fibs

on a long basis the USD is coming back to the downtrendline it has broken out of several years ago. The key ..78 retracement is providing some support in the bigger picture as is the 50 month moving average...
but the shorter term techical action in USD is very bad, the EUR/ USD look like it want to go to 1.18 which is it's 200 week Moving average.as well as being a cluster of shorter term Fibonacci calculations.

The 10 year weekly EUR/USD Look at the tremendous bullish momentum on the RSI Moving average trading system.

The 25 year USD monthly chart with Fibonacci ratio's

The 10 year weekly USD index with Fib ratios

Hi Ox, Those cyclical influences are real and significant... if we see a real dust up with no Health care legislation, coupled with nothing on tax reform and a real impasse on increasing the debt ceiling..... could really create negative psychology. There is always issues with DJT and his combative administrative "twitter war" style coupled with his family not really extricating themselves from a very large portfolio of actively managed companies and assets that can present potential conflicts of interest....

I have some cycle work that has us potentially moving sideways later into the summer then a more classic seventh year decennial pattern "panic" which could unfold in late September and October.

3 and 4 months ago I saw institutional fund managers from 6 or more firms that wanted long European and emerging stock market exposure and they were to a manager talking about using Futures to obtain the overseas stock exposure ... while at the same time they felt it would insulate them from weakness it foreign currencies. That right there was an excellent tell that there was too much bullishness on the USD as we have seen protracted and ongoing weakness since the USD high in Dec of 2016.

The USD has not had a decent rally this entire year and we moved very quickly from the 80 area a few years ago up into the mid 90's...... It's very naive to underestimate the potential for dollar weakness with the litany of
4 key legislative issues that the Republicans have been entirely unable to deal with.

1) Nothing legislatively being done to stablize health costs

2) With no anchor on Health care spending costs, it makes larger and broader tax reform effectively impossible

3) the Tea Party and conservative factions that do not want to sign blank checks on unlimited debt ceiling increases.

4) Political vulnerability in the DJT admin from his lack of political adroitness in dealing with the media, this coupled with the conflict of interest concerns between his business affairs and his adult sons who are managing active assets that can be seen as a conflict of interest. It has been highly unprecedented for a president to not put his assets into a blind trust and DJT and family have many, many assets that require active management, as contrasted with a relatively passive portfolio of large cap stocks, fixed income assets.... that are more typically what has been in 20th century president blind trust portfolios.

John