To: Bill Jackson who wrote (27667 ) 1/9/1998 9:56:00 AM From: alan holman Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 28369
Debt plagues Indonesia Moratorium feared as Jakarta companies seem unable to repay Jakarta jangles Asia nerves - Jan. 9, 1997 January 9, 1998: 7:43 a.m. ET Indonesia spooks Europe - Jan. 9, 1998 Asia jitters, earnings woes - Jan. 8, 1997 CNNfn World Markets More related sites... JAKARTA (Reuters) - A huge majority of Indonesia's listed companies are unable to repay overseas debt and are technically bankrupt unless the rupiah stages a dramatic rebound, economic analysts said on Friday. Mohammad Syahrial, the head of research for Pentasena Securities, said that only 22 of the 282 companies listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange were financially viable. "The formula that I am using is current assets minus total liabilities," he said. "Only 22 companies are in a net surplus, the rest are technically bankrupt." He said these 22 included satellite operator Indosat, mining company Tambang Timah, tobacco companies Gudang Garam and H.M. Sampoerna, retailers Ramayana and Matahari, Bank Negara Indonesia and Bank Internasional Indonesia. Other major companies on his list were timber firm Barito Pacific, Dankos Laboratories, Modern Photo and toll-road operator Citra Marga, which is controlled by President Suharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardianti Rukmana. Syahrial said he was calculating overseas liabilities using a rate of 10,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which prevailed on Thursday evening. The rate improved to about 8,000 by midday on Friday, but other analysts said the estimated $65.6 billion in corporate debt was in any case a virtually insurmountable problem. The debt has accumulated over the years as Indonesian companies sought cheap overseas funding to back growth. With the rupiah depreciating at a controlled five percent per annum, it was a safe bet. But Bank Indonesia, the central bank, floated the rupiah in August as Asian currencies came under attack and the rupiah has fallen precipitously from a level of about 2,400 to the dollar. "Indonesian corporates actually decided at about the 7,000-8,000 level that they were unable to repay debt," said David Chang, head of research at Trimegah Securities brokerage. "They said: 'If you ask me to pay I'll go bankrupt.' They have postponed payments and the banks had virtually no choice but to roll over their debt." While that does not amount to a moratorium on debt payments, other analysts said the dreaded "M" word was a possibility in Indonesia's case. "At this juncture, the risk of debt moratorium is very high," said Daniel Lian, head of Asian Markets Research at ANZ in Singapore. "At this sort of exchange rate, there is no guarantee corporates will honor their overseas liabilities. President Suharto said in a budget speech on Tuesday that Indonesia would honor its debt commitments and there was no word that the government was considering a moratorium. Analysts estimate total overseas debt is $133 billion, including $52.4 billion in sovereign debt and $65.6 billion in corporate borrowings. In the corporate sector, property companies were the worst hit by the debt overhang. The Jakarta Post quoted property analyst Panangian Simanungkalit as saying all 23 real estate firms listed on the exchange were technically bankrupt. He said the firms had combined overseas debt of $3.4 billion, while their combined assets, at the current exchange rate, were worth only $1.7 billion. "So at the current rate of 10,000 rupiah to the dollar, all listed (property) companies have technically and fundamentally gone bust," he was quoted as saying