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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kas1 who wrote (12775)	1/8/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Kas1; I will try to improve on the way I explained it over the week end, I just started this thing early DEC, when I got in off the boat, and was surprised to find how miss leading just looking at the DOW can be. IT's often like looking at surface water and seeing it moveing in one direction , while just under the surface it's really moving just the opposite. Trying to land a tow, something like that can jack you around. :-) Any way I got all the stocks and made my list according to the market cap of each stock, GE at the top..UK at the bottom, and allocated by putting more weight on the MEGA caps than the smaller ones ( thats was for the market cap index of the DOW ) I did a second one using price, by just takeing the tolal DOW that day and allocating by dividing the price of the stock into the DOW INDEX..this gave me more shares of the lower priced ones, and left out the market cap feature..I compare the two from day to day with the DOW INDEX, and look for divergance from the index, and also look to see why. So that way I get an overall feel of the market..if the divergance is a lot, and confirmed both ways then I tend to belive the DOW INDEX will soon adjust and play catchup. ------------------- The puplic and even a lot of Fund Managers are trained to just look at the surface, and that is the cause of even more swings. They jump on behind the curve..forcing it into an over sold, or over bought situation. So far I just use this as a relitively short term way of timing the future market curve. It's getting at this time loaded to move up. ------------------------------ But keep in mind this way I'm looking at it is new, and not yet well tested, I'm hoping to get others to test it as well, I'v only made a few small bets so far based on it. The Market MOOD may take things down or up more than I have learnd to anticipate, I don't think it can be used to call the actul top or bottom, but just as a signal that a reverse is on the way. And then only at times there is a rather large divergance..sometimes it's useless. ----------------------------- Last Friday I said this week would be up , or end up. but the signals were not all that strong. SO far it appears the market has not started up..and the up signal is getting stronger, we will see. Right now the Tail is wagging the DOG, and the crowd is waitng on the INDEX to turn up, the longer they wait the sharper it will rise when it does. I'm thinking I need to do the S&P 100..but that will be an even bigger chore. ------------------------- I will add the crowd has also been taught to look at advancing issues. vs decliners in a broad sence as to the market. THis can also be missleading, as you can have more decliners like yesterday, but on lower volume..and yesterday it was lower volume on the down side, the ones that were up were up stronger..yet the total number of decliners added up did exceed ( "price" wise ) the total number of advancers but not by much, and not in real dollars, as the volume on the advancers was more. This sort of movement sets up a surprise. Jim