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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (4364)	1/8/1998 3:33:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

VOTE NOW: What are the weakest issues in the semi equipment industry? Canon and Nikon certainly have to be feeling some heat from ASM. Any other ideas? Why I'm interested (for anyone who cares). My own feeling is that the semi equipment industry is currently underpriced on a long-term growth model. In other words, if you posit a line of value, the industry stock prices swing wildly on either side of it in a cycle of roughly 2-3 years. If you buy good companies withing the industry right now (comers like ASM and NVLS, or even AMAT which seems to keep on top of technology pretty well), you are pretty sure to make a good profit at some point in the next 2 to 3 years. In the meantime, I think the down cycle is hitting towards the bottom, although it could have another 20% bump down on more bad news from Asia. I think it is most likely stable for a while and am going to trade short term. I just can't see the funds letting AMAT fall below 22, for instance. I'm picking up strong issues on dips (e.g. Cymer under 15, PRIA under 26, ESIO under 34) and selling on 10-15% rises. I want to pick a couple of weaker issues to short on rises, so I have some defense against another general industry dive. I figure shorting weaker issues and going long with stronger ones ought to give me an additional edge. Assuming that <cough> I pick 'em right. So help me pick. What are the weakest issues in the semi equipment industry?